TLDR: Florida's forwards have been piling up hat tricks for a week, and Pittsburgh's defense is missing 3 regulars. The Penguins get Thursday, October 22 at PPG Paints Arena to show a skid that came on the road isn't who they are.
Florida has scored in bunches lately, with hat tricks in 3 straight games, but it plays in Ottawa the night before and will be on the second half of a back-to-back without Barkov or Marchand. Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 after a winless 4-game Western trip and is missing 3 defensemen plus Bryan Rust, though it gets 2 days of rest and the home ice. Whether rest can make up for a depleted Penguins back end is the question.
+2 days of rest before hosting a back-to-back team
+Home after a 4-game Western road trip
+Karlsson's power play scored in Utah
−Girard, van Riemsdyk, Graves all out on defense
−Penalty kill allowed PPGs in consecutive games on trip
−Outshot 29-19 in Utah, Rust out up front
Start with the hats, because nobody else in the league has done this. Brady Tkachuk had a natural hat trick in the 7-3 win at Columbus, which snapped a 2-game skid. Matthew Tkachuk tied a club record with 5 assists in that one. Brady came back with all 3 goals in the 3-2 win over Vancouver, 2 of them in the last 9 minutes to erase a 2-0 hole, and became just the 3rd player ever with natural hat tricks in back-to-back games. Then Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett each had a hat trick in the 8-3 rout of Seattle, and Florida became the first team in NHL history with a hat trick in 3 straight games. As of Tuesday the Panthers have won 3 straight and sit 5-2-2.
There is a catch. Florida plays in Ottawa on Wednesday, then has to travel and play again the next night, so the team in Pittsburgh will be on the second half of a back-to-back. Whatever happens against the Senators, legs and the goalie choice are the questions. Jacob Markstrom got the net back against Seattle after missing 2 games, and how Florida splits the crease across these 2 nights is still unknown. The Panthers have also been winning without Aleksander Barkov, who's out roughly 6-8 weeks with a lower-body injury, and without Brad Marchand, who's on IR. Radko Gudas is day-to-day on the back end.
Pittsburgh is in a different place. The Penguins are 3-6-1 and have lost 4 straight, all on a Western trip through Chicago, Colorado, Vegas and Utah. The Vegas loss was the ugly one: Sergei Murashov stopped 13 of 18, and the penalty kill gave up a power-play goal for the 2nd game in a row. The trip ended with a 5-4 loss in Utah, where the Mammoth outshot them 29-19 and Schmaltz's 3rd-period goal held up despite late goals from Chinakhov and Carlile.
The Penguins' one real advantage is the schedule. They come home with 2 days off after the Utah game, while Florida will be on its second night in a row. A rested home team against a tired road team is about as good a setup as a 3-6-1 club gets. Since Erik Karlsson scored on the power play in Utah, the man advantage has some life, and that matters against a Florida team that might be running on fumes.
Look at Pittsburgh's injury list and the problem is obvious. Samuel Girard is out, and Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves are both on IR, which means 3 defensemen gone from a group already giving up 5 a night on the trip. Bryan Rust is also out up front. Against a Florida team where Bennett, Verhaeghe and both Tkachuks have all been scoring, that thin blue line will spend a lot of time in its own end. The Penguins have to slow the game down and keep it out of track-meet territory.
Panthers vs. Penguins: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 22) — Panthers Bring Their Hat-Trick Habit to a Reeling Pittsburgh · Barstool Bush
