The stakes are bigger than one Week 5 game for both sides. Dallas has missed the playoffs two years running and fired its defensive coordinator to try to change that; Houston is trying to prove last season's run wasn't a ceiling. Wide receiver George Pickens, playing this year on the franchise tag after a 93-catch debut season in Dallas, gives Prescott a second true threat alongside CeeDee Lamb — exactly the kind of firepower that keeps this one from turning into a laugher no matter what Houston's defense looks like by October.
Neither team's current form tells you much about who shows up in Houston. Dallas still has to get through preseason games against Seattle, Arizona and New Orleans plus regular-season trips against the Giants, Commanders and Ravens before this one; Houston has its own preseason stretch against the Raiders and Panthers, then Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. A lot can happen to both rosters — and both defenses — in the six weeks before kickoff.
For now, the injury sheets are mostly camp noise — a knee here, a hamstring there — except for one that matters: Houston's backup quarterback, Graham Mertz, banged up his knee in that preseason opener, which is worth tracking given how thin the position gets behind Stroud. When the Cowboys and Texans finally kick off at 12:00 PM CT on Sunday, October 4, expect two teams still figuring out who they are — with Dallas hoping its new defensive pieces have caught up to its passing game, and Houston hoping last January wasn't a fluke.