The market reflects it. Yankees are -196 on Pinnacle, the run line is juiced, and the public is hammering New York on the moneyline. The one number that pops on the EV side is the Royals moneyline at +114 on DraftKings — basically flat EV, which for a home dog against a -196 favorite is the closest thing to a 'fair' price on the board. Not an endorsement, just an observation.
The Yankees are 32-22 and have dropped 2 of their last 5, which is the only mild crack in this thing. The Royals are 22-32 and the season series is already 4-0 New York. Aaron Judge is doing Judge things at the top of the order and Bobby Witt Jr. is carrying the Royals offensively, but Witt facing Schlittler right now is one of the toughest individual matchups available in baseball this week.
The injury report is where Kansas City's season really shows up. Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are both on the shelf with elbow stuff, Carlos Estevez and Matt Strahm are out of the bullpen, and Jonathan India is done for the year after labrum surgery. That's why Falter is starting in the first place. The Yankees are missing Max Fried, Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez, which matters — but it hasn't stopped them from running away with this rotation.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor (SP) — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez (LF) — Dominguez (shoulder) could be ready for a minor-league rehab assignment during the first week of June, per MLB.com.05/25
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH) — Stanton (calf) is slated to undergo imaging in the next week, per MLB.com.05/25
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried (SP) — Fried (elbow) played catch Monday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli (RP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP) — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli (SP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz (2B) — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.05/08
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero (RP) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said Monday that Ragans (elbow) will be shut down for 2-to-3 days after not bouncing back well from Saturday's rehab start with Triple-A Omaha, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic (SP) — Bubic (elbow) started a full throwing program Saturday, MLB.com reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILMatt Strahm (RP) — Strahm received an injection Monday to help with symptoms of right knee inflammation, MLB.com reports.05/21
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — McArthur (elbow) underwent surgery Friday to help combat continued soreness and inflammation, MLB.com reports.05/25
- 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
The path to a Royals win is the same as it's been every time Schlittler takes the ball this year — grind at-bats, hope he finally hits a wall, and pray your own guy keeps it close. Falter has had 2 outings on the year with a 13.50 ERA between them. The total sitting at 8.5 with Schlittler on the bump tells you the books expect most of the action to come on one side of the scoreboard.