New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

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NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1

First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:45 PM ET, and the pitching matchup leans hard toward the home side on paper. Jesus Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA) has won his last 10 starts and gets a Yankees lineup that's been scuffling to find its identity in the second half. Will Warren (7-4, 4.00 ERA) counters for New York off a quality if unspectacular last outing, 5 innings and 1 earned run against Washington.

Show fees

FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Yankees(57-45)

WLPWW

1

+1.5-174+127o7.5+115

Phillies(56-47)

LLWLW

0

-1.5+170-127u7.5-115

Best BetPhillies -137

Pregame

Luzardo has won 10 straight starts and draws a Yankees lineup still without Judge and Stanton in the middle of the order — that's the kind of talent gap a moneyline price should reflect. Sharp money is actually stacked on the Yankees right now, but that reads more like bettors grabbing plus value on a proven club than a read on tonight's specific matchup. Backing the Phillies to win outright makes sense with the ace on the mound.

New York still doesn't have Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, and it's not close. Judge is dealing with a stress fracture in his first rib and hasn't been cleared for baseball activities; Stanton's calf strain has him without a rehab timeline as of last week. Add Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt both rehabbing arm injuries, and the Yankees are patching together a roster that looks a lot thinner than a 57-45 record suggests.

Cam Schlittler

(10-6)·2.26 ERA

Jul 19 vs Dodgers

L

4.1IP

3ER

8K

0BB

98P

07/24 Lineup

Jesús Luzardo

(10-5)·3.36 ERA

Jul 18 vs Mets

W

5.0IP

1ER

7K

2BB

90P

07/24 Lineup

Philadelphia isn't exactly whole either. The bullpen has been a genuine problem, and losing Brad Keller to a torn UCL only made it worse behind an already-shaky Jose Alvarado. It's the kind of relief crew that can turn a Luzardo gem into a nail-biter in the eighth inning, and the market's total move suggests some of that tension is already priced in.

Both clubs are trying to shake off uneven stretches. The Yankees have bounced between hot and cold over their last five, while the Phillies have dropped three of their last five, including a rough finish to a series with the Dodgers. Neither team is playing its best baseball right now, which makes this series opener less of a formality than the pitching matchup alone would suggest.

New York Yankees

(57-45)

Jul 22Wvs Pirates2-0

Jul 22Lvs Pirates3-5

Jul 21Pvs Pirates0-0

Jul 20Wvs Pirates8-5

Jul 19Wvs Dodgers2-1

Philadelphia Phillies

(56-47)

Jul 22Lvs Dodgers5-9

Jul 21Lvs Dodgers1-2

Jul 20Wvs Dodgers10-7

Jul 19Lvs Mets1-6

Jul 18Wvs Mets6-1

Here's the wrinkle nobody's talking about: Luzardo has actually owned this matchup historically, right? Wrong. He's 0-3 with an 18.36 ERA in three career appearances against the Yankees. That track record is ancient history against his current form, but it's a reminder that New York's lineup, even shorthanded, has given him fits before. If Philadelphia's bullpen has to bail him out early, that history could matter again.

New York Yankees

(4)

• 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH) — Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.07/20
• 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodon (SP) — Rodon (elbow) received a second round of injections after throwing about 10 pitches off a mound Friday and could progress to a full bullpen session this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.07/19
• 60-Day-ILAaron Judge (RF) — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.07/18
• 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP) — Schmidt (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.07/17

Philadelphia Phillies

(7)

• Day-To-DayRafael Marchan (C) — Marchan will start at catcher and bat ninth in Wednesday's game against the Dodgers.07/23
• 10-Day-ILGarrett Stubbs (C) — The Phillies placed Stubbs on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to July 18, due to left wrist inflammation, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.07/21
• 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — The Phillies placed Keller on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a torn UCL in his right elbow.07/16
• 15-Day-ILTanner Banks (RP) — The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain.07/09
• 15-Day-ILLou Trivino (RP) — The Phillies selected Trivino's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.07/08
• 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
• 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24

Bottom line: Philadelphia has the better arm and the better lineup depth even with its own injury bumps, but a bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league gives New York a puncher's chance late. This is a series opener with real stakes for both clubs as the trade deadline closes in, and neither side wants to open on a sour note.