New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

The Yankees are 26-12 with a plus-81 run differential and they've won 4 of their last 5. They're also showing up to Milwaukee without Jasson Dominguez, who got carted off Thursday after slamming into the wall on the first play of the game and is heading to the IL with an AC sprain. So the lineup is a little lighter, but the rotation card tonight is anything but.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
MIL	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	—	6	8	0

Max Fried has been a machine. Through 8 starts he's worked a league-leading 52 2/3 innings and allowed exactly 1 home run, which is the kind of stat line that makes you double-check the spreadsheet. He's 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA and coming off a top-5 Cy Young finish a year ago. There is no soft landing in this matchup for the Brewers offense.

On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski is the most fun pitcher in baseball right now and it isn't particularly close. 59 strikeouts in 38 innings. Opponents hitting .172. His last start in Washington he was 5 1/3 hitless before a hamstring cramp pulled him, and he ripped 43 pitches over 100 mph in that outing — third-most in the pitch-tracking era. Pat Murphy says he's good to go. First career look at the Yankees.

The market has the Yankees at -125 on the moneyline and the total parked at 7. That feels about right given the arms involved — both ERAs are under 3.00, both guys are missing bats, and Milwaukee is getting Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn back to stabilize a lineup that needed a pulse. The DK split is leaning Yankees and over, which tracks with the road-favorite handle but the EV numbers are negative across the board.

The Yankees injury sheet is a horror movie — Cole, Rodon, Schmidt, Stanton, now Dominguez — and they're still 14 games over .500. That's the story of this team. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has Yelich and Woodruff out but just got two key bats back, so the timing of this series is a little kinder than it looks on paper. Friday night, two guys with sub-3 ERAs, and a rookie with rocket fuel meeting the best team in baseball. Get there early.

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