The pitching line on paper is generous to the Twins. Taj Bradley (4-1, 2.87) is back from the pectoral IL and slotting straight into the rotation after one Triple-A St. Paul tune-up and a bullpen earlier this week. Boston counters with reliever Jovani Morán (0-1, 2.81) as the opener, with Brayan Bello expected to handle the bulk innings. That is the kind of matchup edge that does not show up in a moneyline.
It is also why the market is barely committing. Pinnacle has the Red Sox at -113 with a fair win probability right around a coin flip, while DraftKings is dragging the home price out to -156. The DK splits tell you where the public is — 77% of bets on Boston at home — but the line moves and EV markers are not buying the lean.
The injury picture is the actual story of this game. Boston is down Trevor Story for 6-to-10 weeks after sports hernia surgery, Roman Anthony's sprained finger has him stuck on the shelf, and Garrett Crochet is still working back through bullpens. Minnesota is no healthier — Ryan Jeffers needs 6-to-8 weeks after hamate surgery, Pablo López is on the 60-day, and Walker Jenkins is still chasing a return.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis (SP) — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- paternityTristan Gray (3B) — Gray will start at third base and bat seventh in Wednesday's game against the Astros.05/22
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers (C) — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley (SP) — Bradley (pectoral) could rejoin the Twins' rotation as soon as Saturday in Boston, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow/triceps) resumed playing light catch Wednesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson (RP) — Laweryson (forearm) worked around a walk to deliver a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Saturday with Triple-A St. Paul.05/18
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — no05/19
- 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Festa is unlikely to return before the All-Star break after experiencing a setback in his recovery from a right shoulder impingement earlier this month, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.05/18
- 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris (RP) — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-to-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/22
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Red Sox president Sam Kennedy clarified Friday on WEEI 93.7 FM that Anthony is dealing with a sprained ligament on the base of his right ring finger, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Crochet (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session this weekend and live batting practice early next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe (RP) — Coulombe (neck) allowed one run and recorded two outs for Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.05/22
- OutBrendan Rodgers (2B) — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — no05/22
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez (1B) — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval (SP) — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.05/08
If Bradley looks anything like the guy who carried a sub-3 ERA into the IL, this is a Twins game to grab. Boston's bullpen-game blueprint can work, but it asks a lot from a staff that just gave up a 4-run inning the night before. Fenway in a Saturday afternoon shadow game with two patchwork lineups — the under at 7 has a real case, even if the price tag isn't a gift.