The fine print on Ober is worth flagging before you start backing the Twins blind. He's failed to work into the 5th inning in each of his last 2 starts, and through 4 outings his ERA actually sits at 5.49 with the velocity ticking down. He's a command-and-sequencing guy now, not the strike-throwing machine of years past. Still — compared to what's coming the other way, he's a luxury.
Mikolas signed a 1-year, $2.25M deal in February and Washington is getting exactly what they paid for. Six straight starts of fewer than 5 innings. Zero outings with more than 4 strikeouts. A 1.72 WHIP. Nationals fans have watched this movie six times already and the ending hasn't changed.
The market knows. Twins -1.5 at +121 with the Pinnacle EV barely underwater is about as honest a run-line price as you'll find when one starter has a sub-4 ERA and the other is north of 8. The total sitting at 9.5 with the under getting the slight edge is interesting — Ober still misses bats when he's on, and Washington's lineup hasn't exactly been a wrecking crew at home.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins (CF) — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.05/05
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather (RP) — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.05/05
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino (SP) — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/01
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis (SP) — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.03/31
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — The Twins placed Sands on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right forearm strain, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/02
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.04/28
- 15-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Twins manager Derek Shelton said Monday that Abel (elbow) has resumed playing catch and "all signs have been encouraging," Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.04/27
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson (RP) — The Twins will place Laweryson on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right forearm strain, Audra Martin of FanDuel Sports Network North reports.04/11
- 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — Festa (shoulder) is about two weeks from beginning to pitch off a mound, Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll told the Minnesota Star Tribune.04/04
- 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.02/26
- Day-To-DayLuis Garcia Jr. (1B) — Garcia (wrist/hand) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Twins.05/06
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH)
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.04/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.04/08
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/06
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter (RP) — Beeter (forearm) has been cleared to resume throwing off the mound, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/05
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.04/18
- OutJoan Adon (RP) — no12/09
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.11/19
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.04/16
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.04/13
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.03/13
Injury notes worth eyeing: top Twins prospect Walker Jenkins (in Triple-A St. Paul, not the big-league roster) got the Grade 2 AC joint sprain after running into the outfield wall — re-eval in 10 days. The bigger one for Minnesota is Joe Ryan, whose elbow MRI came back clean and who's already playing catch. For Washington, Luis Garcia Jr. is day-to-day with a hand/wrist sprain, which is the kind of thing that quietly drains an already thin lineup.
Bottom line: the Twins should win this game. The line says so, the ERAs say so, and the recent form on Mikolas screams it. The trap is assuming Ober gives you 6 strong — he hasn't been doing that. If Minnesota's bullpen has to cover 4-plus innings, suddenly the run line gets sweaty in a hurry.