Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
MIN	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	7	1
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6	1

First game back from the break, and it's Colin Rea against Bailey Ober at Wrigley Field, first pitch at 7:05 PM CT. Rea's coming off a win over Baltimore where he grinded through 5.1 innings on 91 pitches, while Ober was economical in his last outing against Cleveland — 5 innings, 1 earned run, out at 74 pitches without a decision. Neither guy is an ace, but both have been steady enough to keep their teams in games.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Twins(48-49)

WWLLW

5

+1.5-144+138o10.5-133

Cubs(54-42)

WWLLW

2

-1.5+141-138u10.5+135

Best BetCubs -142

Postgame

Miss — the Twins won outright behind that 4-run 3rd, exactly the bullpen-thin bear case coming to life.

Pregame

Chicago was the play here at -140, with the market pricing the Cubs as roughly 57% favorites behind a deeper lineup and home field. The number banked on Rea building off his last win, but a rotation missing Steele, Taillon and Cabrera left little margin for a bad third inning.

The bigger story for Chicago is who ISN'T on that mound. Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Edward Cabrera — the Cubs have been picking through the wreckage of their rotation for weeks, and the bullpen isn't much healthier with Daniel Palencia, Hoby Milner and Ben Brown all out. Minnesota's not exactly whole either — Pablo Lopez and David Festa are both on the 60-day IL, and closer-caliber arms like Cole Sands and Marco Raya have been in and out of the pen all year.

Bailey Ober

(7-3)·4.45 ERA

Jul 9 vs Guardians

ND

5.0IP

1ER

5K

1BB

74P

07/17 Lineup

Colin Rea

(8-7)·4.67 ERA

Jul 8 @ Orioles

W

5.1IP

3ER

2K

2BB

91P

07/17 Lineup

None of that stopped the Twins from playing their best baseball of the season lately, and it showed up early. This wasn't a case of the healthier team just handling business — Minnesota's rotation depth issues and Chicago's deeper lineup made this one closer to a coin flip than the moneyline suggested.

Minnesota Twins

(48-49)

Jul 12Wvs Angels4-2

Jul 11Wvs Angels5-3

Jul 11Lvs Angels3-4

Jul 9Lvs Guardians2-5

Jul 8Wvs Guardians6-5

Chicago Cubs

(54-42)

Jul 12W@ Reds8-4

Jul 11W@ Reds5-3

Jul 10L@ Reds0-4

Jul 9L@ Orioles2-3

Jul 8W@ Orioles9-7

Minnesota's last-5 stretch — 2 losses bookended by wins — undersells how good this team has actually been since mid-June. They're a game under .500 on the season but have been grinding out series wins on the road, and that showed up again here. The Cubs, meanwhile, have alternated good and bad in their last 5 too, and Friday was a reminder that a 54-42 record doesn't guarantee anything on a given night, especially with the pitching staff running thin.

Both injury lists read like a MASH unit at this point.

Minnesota Twins

(9)

• 10-Day-ILByron Buxton (CF) — The Twins placed Buxton (hip) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.07/07
• 15-Day-ILAnthony Banda (RP) — Banda underwent surgery to repair his left lat strain and will miss the remainder of the 2026 season, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.07/09
• 15-Day-ILConnor Prielipp (SP) — Prielipp did not factor into the decision Wednesday against the Twins, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out six.07/09
• 15-Day-ILMarco Raya (RP) — The Twins placed Raya on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right shoulder impingement.07/08
• 15-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Sands (forearm) tossed a perfect inning in his rehab appearance with Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday.07/08
• 60-Day-ILGarrett Acton (RP) — Acton (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on one hit and three walks over two-thirds of an inning in a rehab appearance Tuesday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.07/15
• 60-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — Abel (elbow) was transferred to the 60-day injured list Friday.07/14
• 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — The Twins announced June 1 that Festa (shoulder) has started a throwing progression, MLB.com reports.06/11
• 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08

Chicago Cubs

(14)

• 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/04
• 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Palencia (elbow) is hopeful to return to the Cubs' bullpen in mid-August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that the Cubs expect Cabrera (hamstring) to return from the injured list in the second week of August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Milner (abdomen) will likely return from the injured list sometime around Aug. 1, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Taillon (hamstring) will return from the injured list during the Cubs' upcoming series against the Tigers, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation.06/29
• 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
• 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
• 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Steele (elbow) was cleared to begin ramping up his throwing program Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/08
• 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
• 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
• 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

The Cubs simply don't have the pitching depth right now to survive a mistake-free Twins lineup, and that's exactly what happened. Chicago got the first run in the 1st but couldn't build on it, and a 4-run 3rd from Minnesota flipped the game before Rea or the bullpen behind him could settle in.

Final tally: Twins 5, Cubs 2, with Minnesota's 4-run 3rd inning doing all the damage. It's one game in a three-game set, but for a Cubs team trying to hold serve in a crowded NL Central race, dropping the opener to a sub-.500 wild-card hopeful is not the way you want to start the second half.