Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers roll out Jacob Misiorowski (11-5, 1.63) for the series finale, and that alone should tell Twins fans how this one is supposed to go. Minnesota counters with rookie lefty Connor Prielipp (3-5, 4.75), who's shown real stuff in his first MLB season but doesn't have anywhere near the margin for error his mound opponent does.

Misiorowski's last time out against the Angels was that same absurd formula on repeat: 7 shutout-caliber innings, 10 strikeouts, 1 walk, just 2 hits allowed on only 83 pitches. He took the loss anyway thanks to Milwaukee's offense going quiet, which is the only way an outing like that doesn't end in a win. Prielipp's last start against Seattle was solid if unspectacular — 5.1 innings, 5 strikeouts, 4 walks — the kind of line that plays fine against a lineup that isn't this one.

Minnesota is dealing with more than just a brutal pitching matchup. Byron Buxton is stuck on the 10-day IL with a hip issue that hasn't responded the way the Twins hoped, and Joe Ryan just landed on the 15-day IL with a glute strain — two massive absences for a team trying to hang onto a Wild Card spot. The Twins actually had to recall Zebby Matthews from Triple-A just to plug the rotation hole Ryan left behind, which says plenty about how thin things have gotten in Minnesota.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
MIL	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	4	8	1

Milwaukee, meanwhile, is playing with the kind of margin that makes an off day forgivable. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 and are sitting comfortably atop the NL Central at 73-44, a full division ahead of where Minnesota's at. Their one hiccup of the week was Friday's loss to these same Twins, when a four-run lead got erased — proof this Minnesota lineup can still do damage against a good pitching staff, even if Sunday's assignment is a different animal entirely.

Milwaukee's lone injury concern of note is shortstop Joey Ortiz, who left Saturday's game early and is getting his neck checked out — worth watching for the lineup card. Otherwise the Brewers are rolling into this one about as healthy and hot as a first-place team can be, with their ace on the mound and a series win already banked.

This is Minnesota's spot to be a spoiler, not a favorite. Split the first two games of the set, and the Twins have already shown they can hang with the Brewers when the matchup is even. Sunday's matchup isn't even — it's about as lopsided as pitching matchups get in this league right now.

Sources