On the other side: Trevor Rogers, who has somehow turned into the most confusing pitcher in baseball. The 6.87 ERA tells you he's bad. The deeper numbers tell you he's historically bad — Baltimore is 0-5 in his last 5 starts, he's allowed 25 earned runs over his last 19 innings, and his .871 OPS-against with 2 strikes is the worst among MLB starters. Rogers himself hasn't ruled out tipping pitches. That's where we are.
The Tigers' lineup, for its part, is wounded. Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Javier Baez, and Parker Meadows are all on the IL, which means the offense leaning on Rogers' meltdown is doing so without most of its real bats. Skubal threw a 35-pitch bullpen Thursday, so help is at least visible on the horizon, but it's not here tonight.
- Day-To-DayDugan Darnell (RP) — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJosue Briceno (C) — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILGleyber Torres (2B) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Wednesday that Torres (oblique) is still unable to swing a bat at full effort, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.05/20
- 10-Day-ILJavier Baez (SS) — Baez (ankle) has been conducting his rehab at the Tigers' spring training facility in Florida and is taking part in full baseball activities, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.05/20
- 10-Day-ILKerry Carpenter (RF) — Carpenter (shoulder) has been doing light running and throwing since landing on the 10-day injured list and expects to resume swinging a bat this week, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILBrant Hurter (RP) — Hurter (4-1) allowed a run on two hits and a walk across 1.2 innings of relief to take the loss Friday against the Royals. He struck out one.05/24
- 15-Day-ILBurch Smith (RP) — Smith has been diagnosed with right shoulder soreness and received a cortisone injection Friday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILTarik Skubal (SP) — Skubal (elbow) threw a successful 35-pitch bullpen session Thursday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.05/21
- 15-Day-ILTy Madden (SP) — Madden (forearm) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Wednesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander (SP) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday that Verlander (hip) is "inching forward more than sprinting forward" with his rehab, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJackson Jobe (SP) — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILBeau Brieske (RP) — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTrey Sweeney (SS) — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILReese Olson (SP) — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.05/08
- 60-Day-ILParker Meadows (CF) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBailey Horn (RP) — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayCoby Mayo (3B) — Mayo (back) is out of the lineup for the second game of Sunday's doubleheader versus the Tigers.05/24
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells (P) — Triple-A Norfolk placed Wells on its 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right hip discomfort, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/20
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch (SP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson (LF) — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez (SS) — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers (RF) — Beavers (oblique) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.05/13
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich (SP) — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILDean Kremer (SP) — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Kremer (quadriceps) has begun a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — General manager Mike Elias said Friday that Mountcastle is expected to return sometime in late June or July, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILHeston Kjerstad (LF) — The Orioles transferred Kjerstad (hamstring) to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/11
- 60-Day-ILYaramil Hiraldo (RP) — The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILZach Eflin (SP) — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
Baltimore is a Coby Mayo scratch (back) away from being shorthanded too. Mountcastle, Westburg, Kjerstad, Kremer, Helsley — the names just keep going. This is 2 teams playing meaningful baseball with their backup plans, and one of them has to ask a debutant to outpitch a guy posting an 11.84 ERA over his last 5 starts. Pick your poison.
The market still has Baltimore as a -127 favorite at home with the total sitting at 8, which feels generous to Rogers given everything above. The EV numbers across the board are negative — nothing here screams bet — but if you're squinting at a side, the Tigers moneyline at +106 on DK is the one that makes you stop and think. Game 1 of the doubleheader sets the tone; Game 2 is the one with the popcorn matchup.