Barstool Bush
Predictions

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

By Bush StaffUpdated 26d ago·2 min read
Kansas City RoyalsKC(45-62)
Detroit TigersDET(50-56)
5—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
KC
200100020561
DET
000040000481

Luinder Avila got the ball for Kansas City looking to close out the sweep, coming off arguably his best start of the season 5 days earlier. Framber Valdez had the tougher task on the mound for Detroit, trying to erase the memory of his last time out, when he didn't survive the 1st inning.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Royals(45-62)
WWLLW
5
Tigers(50-56)
LLWWW
4
Best BetRoyals +156
Postgame

The Royals won outright 5-4, cashing the moneyline pick as Avila and the offense outlasted a shaky Valdez.

Pregame

We backed the Royals at plus money before the finale, and the price reflected how little respect this Kansas City club gets even when it's playing well. Avila had the better recent stuff of the 2 starters, and a shorthanded Tigers lineup missing Carpenter for most of the day made the road side more live than the record implied.

The bigger story in Detroit by the end of the afternoon was who wasn't on the field. Right fielder Kerry Carpenter exited after 4 innings dealing with an apparent injury, thinning out a Tigers lineup that was already trying to cover for the loss of Javier Baez and Parker Meadows for most of the year. Every hole in that order is an opening for Kansas City's pitching staff to exploit, and Sunday it did.

Kansas City Royals
Luinder Avila
(5-4)·5.53 ERA
Jul 21 vs Giants
W
6.1IP
2ER
7K
1BB
87P
07/26 Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Framber Valdez
(7-7)·4.17 ERA
Jul 21 @ Cubs
L
0.2IP
6ER
1K
2BB
42P
07/26 Lineup

None of this was supposed to be a fair fight on paper — Detroit came in the better team by record and the deeper roster. But records only tell you so much in a 4-game set, and the Royals spent this series proving the gap between these two clubs is a lot smaller than 45-62 versus 50-56 suggests.

Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
(45-62)
Jul 26W@ Tigers5-4
Jul 25W@ Tigers3-2
Jul 24L@ Tigers1-2
Jul 23L@ Tigers3-4
Jul 22Wvs Giants5-4
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(50-56)
Jul 26Lvs Royals4-5
Jul 25Lvs Royals2-3
Jul 24Wvs Royals2-1
Jul 23Wvs Royals4-3
Jul 23W@ Cubs5-1

Kansas City dropped the first 2 games of the series before flipping the script. Nick Loftin's go-ahead homer in the 9th won game 3, and Salvador Perez punctuated the stretch by launching the 318th home run of his Royals career. That's the kind of form that doesn't show up in a season-long record but wins a weekend.

Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
(12)
  • 10-Day-ILKyle Isbel (CF) — Isbel (foot) went 1-for-2 with an RBI triple and a run scored with Triple-A Omaha on Tuesday.07/22
  • 10-Day-ILBobby Witt Jr. (SS) — Manager Matt Quatraro said that Witt, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Giants, is still feeling "pretty stiff" as he continues to manage back spasms and tightness, Jaylon T. Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports.07/22
  • 10-Day-ILMaikel Garcia (3B) — Garcia (hand) began swinging during the All-Star break and is set to be re-evaluated Sunday, per MLB.com.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILConnor Seabold (RP) — The Royals placed Seabold on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right lat strain.07/01
  • 60-Day-ILKris Bubic (SP) — Bubic (elbow/shoulder) began a throwing progression Friday with 30 throws from 45-to-60 feet, MLB.com reports.07/25
  • 60-Day-ILStephen Kolek (SP) — The Royals reinstated Kolek (personal) from the family medical leave list and placed on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right flexor strain.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — Estevez (shoulder) started a throwing program Friday, per MLB.com.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILNick Mears (RP) — The Royals transferred Mears (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.07/14
  • 60-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — Ragans underwent UCL repair surgery on his left elbow Wednesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — no06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — McArthur (elbow) underwent surgery Friday to help combat continued soreness and inflammation, MLB.com reports.05/25
  • 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(13)
  • Day-To-DayKerry Carpenter (RF) — Carpenter was lifted from Sunday's game against the Royals after four innings due to an apparent injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports. He went hitless in two at-bats prior to his departure.07/26
  • 15-Day-ILJack Flaherty (SP) — The Tigers placed Flaherty on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right flexor strain.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILJavier Baez (SS) — Baez (ankle) will move his rehab assignment to Triple-A Toledo on Saturday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.07/24
  • 60-Day-ILBurch Smith (RP) — Smith is being evaluated after exiting a rehab appearance with Triple-A Toledo on Thursday with right shoulder/lat discomfort, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.07/24
  • 60-Day-ILJackson Jobe (SP) — Jobe (elbow) struck out three and allowed one unearned run on three hits and no walks across three innings Sunday in his rehab start with Double-A Erie.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILWill Vest (RP) — Detroit transferred Vest (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILBailey Horn (RP) — Horn (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander (SP) — Verlander (hamstring/hip) announced Wednesday via social media that he will retire following the 2026 season.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILWenceel Perez (RF) — Perez (orbital) played light catch on the field at Comerica Park on Tuesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.07/07
  • 60-Day-ILParker Meadows (CF) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILTrey Sweeney (SS) — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBrant Hurter (RP) — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.05/29
  • 60-Day-ILReese Olson (SP) — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.05/08

Detroit's collection of arms on the shelf — Jack Flaherty, Jackson Jobe, Will Vest, and a retiring Justin Verlander among them — has forced the Tigers to lean harder on complementary pieces, and Valdez's late-July slide has made that burden heavier. Kansas City's own injury list is arguably worse on paper, with Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans and Maikel Garcia all out, yet the Royals kept finding a way to scratch out runs against a team that's supposed to have more talent up and down the roster.

Sunday followed the same script as the rest of the series. Kansas City jumped out early, Detroit clawed back into it, and the Royals had the last word.

The Royals scored twice in the 1st and added a run in the 4th before Detroit answered with a 4-run 5th to briefly grab the lead. But Kansas City tacked on 2 more in the 8th to walk away with a 5-4 win and the sweep. For a team going nowhere in the standings, that's a series worth remembering — and for the Tigers, a reminder that a rough final week of July can undo a lot of good work.

Sources

MLBKansas City RoyalsDetroit TigersPolymarketKalshiLuinder AvilaFramber Valdez