Barstool Bush
Predictions

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 29d ago·2 min read
Colorado RockiesCOL(41-63)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(64-38)
5—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
COL
201100100590
MIL
100001000290

Shane Drohan (5-3, 3.20 ERA) takes the ball for Milwaukee against Tomoyuki Sugano (9-4, 4.76) for a 3:10 PM CT first pitch Friday at American Family Field. Drohan wasn't even in the rotation plan when the season started — he got roughed up in an April cup of coffee, got sent back down, and only worked his way back to the rotation on June 1 out of relief. Since then he's been arguably Milwaukee's best surprise, and he's coming off 6 shutout-adjacent innings with 9 strikeouts against Miami in his last time out.

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FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Rockies(41-63)
LWLLW
5
Brewers(64-38)
WLWWW
2
Best BetBrewers -256
Pregame

Milwaukee is heavily favored and for good reason — this is a team chasing the Dodgers for the best record in baseball against the club with the worst. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 6 and get a red-hot Drohan on the mound, which is about as clean a moneyline spot as you'll find. Colorado's price reflects real long-shot value only if you think this lineup can string together contact against a pitcher who just carved up Miami.

Sugano just got back from the injured list himself. Back spasms cost him most of July, and his return start against Cincinnati was his first outing since landing on the IL on July 4. He didn't miss a beat — 6.1 innings, 3 earned runs, a win — and he's now taken a decision in 5 of his last 6 starts. The 36-year-old has quietly been the one stable arm in a Colorado rotation that's been gutted by injuries all year.

Colorado Rockies
Tomoyuki Sugano
(11-5)·4.51 ERA
Jul 18 vs Reds
W
6.1IP
3ER
3K
0BB
77P
07/24 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Shane Drohan
(6-4)·3.48 ERA
Jul 18 vs Marlins
W
6.0IP
3ER
9K
1BB
90P
07/24 Lineup

The gap between these two clubs isn't a betting-market illusion. Milwaukee has won 5 of 6 since the All-Star break and is chasing the Dodgers for the best record in the sport. Colorado has lost 2 of 3 to both Cincinnati and Washington in that same stretch and is anchored to the bottom of the standings. The price reflects a genuine talent gap, not just home-field noise.

Milwaukee's lineup has been rolling even without some key names. Sal Frelick, David Hamilton and Brandon Lockridge are all out, and Brandon Woodruff is done for the year after opting for season-ending shoulder surgery — yet the Brewers just took 2 of 3 from the Mets and swept a series from Miami before that. That's organizational depth doing the heavy lifting, and it's the kind of thing that shows up against a team like Colorado that doesn't have the horses to punish mistakes.

Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle (CF) — Doyle (groin/oblique) has been cleared to resume a rehab assignment, Patrick Lyons of JustBaseball.com reports.07/22
  • 15-Day-ILJeff Criswell (RP) — The Rockies recalled Criswell from Triple-A Albuquerque on Saturday.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILBlas Castano (RP) — Castano (pectoral) is expected to begin a throwing program next week, MLB.com reports.07/03
  • 15-Day-ILJaden Hill (RP) — Hill (shoulder) resumed playing catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILJose Quintana (SP) — Quintana (elbow) is scheduled to play catch Monday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILChase Dollander (SP) — Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILWelinton Herrera (RP) — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILRJ Petit (RP) — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl (RP) — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILKris Bryant (DH) — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILSal Frelick (RF) — no07/21
  • 10-Day-ILDavid Hamilton (3B) — Hamilton (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/21
  • 15-Day-ILJoel Kuhnel (RP) — Kuhnel (shoulder) is slated to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.07/21
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Harrison (SP) — Harrison (elbow) is scheduled to throw live batting practice Saturday and begin a rehab assignment July 31, Hunter Baumgardt of Fox Sports 920 Milwaukee reports.07/21
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) struck out a batter and allowed one hit and no walks over a scoreless inning Sunday in a rehab start with High-A Wisconsin.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Manager Pat Murphy said that Lockridge (knee) is expected to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff announced Saturday that he will undergo season-ending capsule repair surgery on his right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.07/16
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Colorado's issues go well beyond one back-spasm scare. Brenton Doyle is working back from a groin/oblique injury, Kris Bryant hasn't been able to do baseball activities in months with his back, and the rotation has lost Jose Quintana, Chase Dollander and McCade Brown to long-term IL stints. When your best recent stretch includes an 8-7 comeback win sandwiched between a pair of blowout losses, as Colorado's last 5 games show, that's a team searching for consistency more than momentum.

Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
(41-63)
Jul 22Lvs Nationals0-8
Jul 22Wvs Nationals8-7
Jul 21Lvs Nationals3-7
Jul 19Lvs Reds6-9
Jul 18Wvs Reds10-3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(64-38)
Jul 22Wvs Mets4-3
Jul 21Lvs Mets0-4
Jul 20Wvs Mets8-3
Jul 19Wvs Marlins3-1
Jul 18Wvs Marlins8-6

None of that means Colorado rolls over and dies here. The Rockies have shown flashes — a 10-3 win over Cincinnati just last week, an 8-7 walk-off type escape against Washington — proof there's some fight in a lineup that isn't as toothless as the record suggests. But against a Brewers club playing its best baseball of the summer and getting a get-right start from a guy who's quietly been lights-out since June, Colorado is fighting uphill in every phase.

Sources

MLBColorado RockiesMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiTomoyuki SuganoShane Drohan