Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

By Bush StaffUpdated 56d ago·2 min read
Cincinnati RedsCIN(38-42)
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(41-41)
9—7
FINAL
123456789RHE
CIN
1010220039100
PIT
0031002107112

Chase Burns (9-1, 2.00 ERA) draws Jared Jones (1-1, 5.75 ERA) in the middle game of this three-game set at PNC Park, first pitch 4:05 PM ET. On paper, this is as clean a pitching mismatch as you'll find anywhere in baseball this weekend.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Reds(38-42)
WLLLW
9
Pirates(41-41)
LWWLW
7
Best BetReds -119
Pregame

Burns at 9-1 with a 2.00 ERA is worth the slight Reds edge at -114. Cincinnati just proved Friday they can beat Pittsburgh's best, and now they're throwing their best against Pittsburgh's most uncertain arm. The price doesn't ask you to pay much for a genuine pitching advantage.

Burns is on an absolute run — 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 5 starts, 102 strikeouts on the season, and reportedly the first Reds pitcher to reel off 8 consecutive winning decisions since Tom Browning in 1989. He already beat Pittsburgh on March 30 earlier this year, throwing 5 scoreless innings in the series opener. Jones is a different story: he's working his way back from UCL surgery and took a comebacker off his right elbow in his last start June 21 against Colorado. The Pirates confirmed he'd take the ball Saturday, but he's listed day-to-day and has posted a 5.75 ERA across 5 post-surgery starts — not a guy you'd pick to neutralize a lineup with a win over Skenes in its legs.

Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
(11-1)·2.54 ERA
Jun 21 @ Yankees
W
5.0IP
1ER
7K
3BB
96P
06/27 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared Jones
(1-1)·4.37 ERA
Jun 21 @ Rockies
ND
3.0IP
1ER
3K
2BB
45P
06/27 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(38-42)
Jun 26W@ Pirates6-4
Jun 24Lvs Brewers5-6
Jun 23Lvs Brewers0-2
Jun 22Lvs Brewers1-2
Jun 21W@ Yankees4-1
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(41-41)
Jun 26Lvs Reds4-6
Jun 25Wvs Mariners5-1
Jun 24Wvs Mariners11-1
Jun 23Lvs Mariners2-3
Jun 21W@ Rockies8-6

Cincinnati arrives riding a confidence jolt. Noelvi Marte came off the bench Friday night and hit a tiebreaking 2-run homer in the eighth to cap a 6-4 win — over Paul Skenes, who had never lost to the Reds before that game. The Reds had dropped 3 straight to Milwaukee before this trip, getting outscored 10-6 while hitting .219 as a team. A win over Pittsburgh's best pitcher in a comeback fashion is exactly what a 38-42 team needs to carry into a spot where they have their own ace going. Pittsburgh, sitting right at .500 at 41-41, had rattled off 2 straight wins over Seattle before absorbing that gut punch Friday.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(10)
  • Day-To-DayBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn was removed from Friday's game against the Pirates with right elbow discomfort, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/27
  • Day-To-DayNick Lodolo (SP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lodolo (wrist) "showed up pretty good" when he reported to the ballpark Wednesday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.06/24
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.06/18
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/22
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.06/24
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/03
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(10)
  • Day-To-DayJared Jones (SP) — no06/27
  • Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.06/09
  • Day-To-DayMitch Jebb (LF)
  • Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B) — The Pirates placed Horwitz on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left hamstring strain.06/25
  • 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.06/14
  • 15-Day-ILWilber Dotel (RP) — Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.06/07

Blake Dunn left Friday's game with right elbow discomfort and is day-to-day for Saturday — a blow for a Cincinnati outfield that was already shorthanded. Pittsburgh is without Oneil Cruz (hand, 4-6 week recovery) and Spencer Horwitz (hamstring). Both rosters are bleeding bodies, but the Reds' injuries are deeper in the rotation — Greene on the 60-day, Lodolo day-to-day, Williamson out for months — while Pittsburgh's rotation concern Saturday is Jones himself. If his elbow limits him through 3 or 4 innings, the Pirates' bullpen will see action earlier than anyone in Pittsburgh wants.

Burns is the kind of starter who doesn't care who's in the other dugout. His upper-90s fastball and a slider that opponents haven't cracked make him the Reds' answer to almost any problem, and he's been the answer all season. Jones facing a lineup that just roughed up Skenes — while pitching through a right elbow scare — is a rough ask. The Reds need series wins to stay in the NL Central conversation. With Burns going on Saturday afternoon, this is a game Cincinnati should take.

Sources

MLBCincinnati RedsPittsburgh PiratesPolymarketKalshiChase BurnsJared Jones