Sunday's pitching matchup is a rematch of an earlier 2-0 Reds win. Chase Burns has been the real deal — 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 39 punchouts — and he already struck out seven Pirates over five shutout frames the first time he saw them. The catch: lefties have hit him hard all year, which matters in a Pittsburgh lineup that suddenly remembered how to swing.
Braxton Ashcraft (1-2, 3.71) gets the ball for the Bucs after holding Cincinnati to two runs over six in their last meeting. He's also been tougher on righties than lefties, which is a problem because the Reds' offense is one Eugenio Suárez injury lighter than usual.
- Day-To-DayRhett Lowder (SP) — Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/08
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher (RF) — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum (LF) — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across three innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.05/08
The injury column is doing real work here. Suárez is still on the IL with the oblique, Hunter Greene is months away, and Nick Lodolo is targeting a Friday return that doesn't help today. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is mostly waiting on Jared Jones and managing the Mike Clevinger MCL situation. Net-net: the Reds are the more banged-up roster trying to climb out of a series hole.
The market has the Pirates as modest home favorites at -116 with a total of 7.5, and the EV numbers don't love either side. Fair enough. After watching Pittsburgh hang 26 runs in two days, fading them feels brave; backing them at this number after a 17-run outburst feels like buying high. The Reds being road dogs in Pittsburgh would have sounded absurd a week ago. Here we are.
Bottom line: Cincinnati needs Burns to do exactly what he did to this lineup last time, because if Pittsburgh's bats stay hot, this turns into a sweep and a real conversation about whether the Reds' early-season run was the version of this team or a mirage.