The roadblock: Chase Burns. The Reds' rookie has been the one thing keeping their rotation upright with Hunter Greene and Rhett Lowder on the shelf, and he's coming off a 7-inning, 7-strikeout gem against the Pirates where the only thing he didn't get was the win. A 1.87 ERA against a Phillies lineup that may or may not have Kyle Schwarber in it (he was out Monday, day-to-day) is the matchup to watch.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino (C) — Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder (SP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.05/10
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/08
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/14
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayKyle Schwarber (DH) — Schwarber is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Reds.05/18
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.05/08
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop (RP) — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.05/11
- suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMax Lazar (RP) — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.05/08
On the other side, Jesús Luzardo is the guy Philly fans have been chewing their nails over all year. His April was a 7.94-ERA dumpster fire, but he just put up 6 scoreless against the Red Sox at Fenway on May 14 with 4 punchouts. The stuff is there. Whether he can string two of those together in a row is the entire question.
The market sees the pitching gap clearly. Pinnacle has the Phillies at -134 on the moneyline and the total parked at 8.5, while DraftKings is sitting on a 10-run total that nobody on the sharp side seems interested in. EV is negative across the board, which is the books' way of saying don't get cute here.
Bottom line: Phillies are rolling, but they're walking into a buzzsaw of their own in Burns. If Luzardo gives Mattingly 6 useful innings, Philly's bullpen and home crowd do the rest. If he doesn't, the Reds steal one and snap a 3-game skid of their own.