Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CIN	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	4	5	0
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	6	1

Chase Burns has been the one thing keeping this Reds season from total collapse, and he draws Luis Castillo in a matchup that isn't close on paper. Burns rolls in at 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, an All-Star nod already banked, and a stat line that reads like a typo: 2 runs or fewer allowed in 14 of his first 15 starts, something no Reds pitcher had done since 1900. Castillo, meanwhile, is stuck at 3-8 with a 4.93 ERA and just got roughed up for 4 earned runs over 5 innings against Tampa Bay in his last time out.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Reds(45-54)

LWLWL

4

+1.5-203+106o7.5-102

Mariners(51-50)

WWWLW

2

-1.5+199-108u7.5+102

Best BetReds -107

Pregame

Cincinnati's record says stay away, but the pitching matchup says otherwise — Burns is a legitimate ace facing a Castillo who's been shaky all year and just got knocked around in his last start. Sharp money has piled onto the Reds here, with the bulk of tracked bettor dollars stacked on Cincinnati moneyline. When the mismatch on the mound is this stark, the win-loss record matters less than who's actually pitching.

Seattle's riding a 3-game winning streak into this one, punctuated by Cal Raleigh's 6th career grand slam in Monday's blowout, but that win came with a scare. Julio Rodriguez left after getting struck by a throw from Elly De La Cruz and is now day-to-day, and J.P. Crawford's already dealing with wrist soreness that scratched him earlier in the series. Manager Dan Wilson didn't sound panicked about Rodriguez, but losing your best all-around player for even a game or two matters against a division rival breathing down your neck.

Chase Burns

(13-1)·2.35 ERA

Jul 8 vs Phillies

W

5.0IP

3ER

2K

6BB

106P

07/21 Lineup

Luis Castillo

(3-9)·5.06 ERA

Jul 10 @ Rays

L

5.0IP

4ER

4K

1BB

91P

07/21 Lineup

Cincinnati isn't walking into Seattle as a healthy club either. Spencer Steer got X-rayed after taking a pitch to the ribs Monday, and the pitching staff is already thin with Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Tony Santillan all on the shelf. The one thing going right in Cincinnati's favor right now is Elly De La Cruz, who's been arguably the best player in this series and has turned into one of the sport's must-watch talents.

Cincinnati Reds

(45-54)

Jul 21L@ Mariners0-8

Jul 19W@ Rockies9-6

Jul 18L@ Rockies3-10

Jul 18W@ Rockies7-2

Jul 12Lvs Cubs4-8

Seattle Mariners

(51-50)

Jul 21Wvs Reds8-0

Jul 19Wvs Giants6-3

Jul 19Wvs Giants4-3

Jul 18Lvs Giants0-7

Jul 12W@ Rays8-2

The records tell two different stories — Seattle's fighting for a division lead at 51-50, Cincinnati's 9 games under .500 and mostly playing out the string at 45-54 — but this specific game hinges less on the standings and more on who's actually available and who's on the mound. De La Cruz set a franchise record for the fastest path to 150 stolen bases this season, and he's been hitting safely in bunches all July, giving the Reds a legitimate spark at the top of the order even as the rest of the roster limps.

Cincinnati Reds

(7)

• Day-To-DaySpencer Steer (1B) — Steer was sent for X-rays following Monday's game against the Mariners after being struck by a pitch in the ribs, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/21
• 10-Day-ILMatt McLain (2B) — McLain (calf) will take batting practice on the field in Seattle on Monday, MLB.com reports.07/20
• 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) has shown improvement and hit off a tee July 11, MLB.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) received a PRP injection July 9 and is undergoing further treatment, MLB.com reports.07/18
• 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — Lodolo had his blister drained and began throwing with a Plyo ball, MLB.com reports.07/18
• 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18
• 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28

Seattle Mariners

(9)

• Day-To-DayJulio Rodriguez (CF) — The Mariners pulled Rodriguez from Monday's game against the Reds as a precaution, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.07/21
• Day-To-DayJ.P. Crawford (SS) — Crawford (undisclosed) was scratched from Monday's lineup against the Reds, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.07/20
• 10-Day-ILRob Refsnyder (DH) — Refsnyder (knee) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.07/17
• 10-Day-ILBrendan Donovan (3B) — Donovan (groin) will shift his rehab assignment to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.07/17
• 15-Day-ILMatt Brash (RP) — General manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Brash was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain in his right lat, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.06/16
• 60-Day-ILCooper Criswell (RP) — Seattle transferred Criswell (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday.07/04
• 60-Day-ILCarlos Vargas (RP) — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Vargas (lat) recently began a throwing program and could be ready to return from the 60-day injured list around the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Zac Hereth of 710 AM Seattle Sports reports.06/17
• 60-Day-ILWill Wilson (3B) — Wilson (thumb) has gone 3-for-9 with two RBI and a 1:2 BB:K in his first three rehab games between High-A Everett and Triple-A Tacoma.06/17
• 60-Day-ILLogan Evans (SP) — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08

Burns has been must-see theater all year, and Tuesday's the kind of get-right spot for Cincinnati that this rotation desperately needs after getting shut out Monday. If Seattle's lineup is even a little short-handed with Rodriguez and Crawford banged up, this has the look of a game that stays close a lot longer than an 8-0 final would suggest.