Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 51d ago·2 min read
Cincinnati RedsCIN(39-46)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(53-31)
7—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
CIN
1004001107111
MIL
000011000241

Chase Burns (9-1, 2.36 ERA) gets the series-finale assignment against Jacob Misiorowski (9-3, 1.45 ERA), the right-hander who leads all of baseball in ERA and strikeouts in 2026. First pitch is 1:10 PM CT at American Family Field.

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FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Reds(39-46)
LLLLW
7
Brewers(53-31)
WWWLL
2
Best BetBrewers -203
Pregame

Misiorowski leads MLB in ERA and strikeouts, and the Reds are 0-6 against Milwaukee in 2026 with nothing to suggest that changes today. The +169 price on Cincinnati overstates their chances in this matchup — they've been held to 7 total runs in 3 games this series and their lineup is short-handed. Back Milwaukee to handle business at home with their ace on the hill.

The pitcher card doesn't capture the full scope of what Misiorowski has been doing. His average fastball velocity leads the majors for a starter at 100 mph, and he threw a 103.7 mph pitch in June — the fastest by any starting pitcher since tracking began in 2008. Opponents are hitting .151 against him on the season, and he's posted shutouts in 6 of his last 7 starts across 116 strikeouts in 13 outings. Burns is a legitimate ace himself, but his last start in Pittsburgh was rough: 5 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. He fanned 10 without walking anybody, yet still gave up 5 runs. He'll need to be considerably sharper today.

Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
(11-1)·2.54 ERA
Jun 27 @ Pirates
ND
6.0IP
5ER
10K
0BB
93P
07/02 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski
(10-4)·1.62 ERA
Jun 26 vs Cubs
W
6.0IP
1ER
8K
4BB
107P
07/02 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(39-46)
Jul 2L@ Brewers2-4
Jun 30L@ Brewers2-7
Jun 29L@ Brewers3-5
Jun 28L@ Pirates4-9
Jun 27W@ Pirates9-7
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(53-31)
Jul 2Wvs Reds4-2
Jun 30Wvs Reds7-2
Jun 29Wvs Reds5-3
Jun 28Lvs Cubs3-4
Jun 27Lvs Cubs2-8

Cincinnati came into Milwaukee and has been outscored 16-7 across 3 games. The Reds are 0-6 against the Brewers in 2026, and this is not a sample-size issue — Milwaukee has been the better team every single time. Making things harder: both Dane Myers and Blake Dunn are on the injured list, leaving the outfield thin. The good news for Reds fans is that Hunter Greene is reportedly set to make his season debut Saturday against Baltimore after spending the year on the 60-day IL. The rotation help just won't arrive in time for today.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(9)
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILDane Myers (CF) — The Reds placed Myers on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a left shoulder contusion, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Manager Terry Francona said that Hayes (back) will face live pitching at the Reds' facility in Arizona on Wednesday or Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/29
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) will make his season debut for the Reds on Saturday versus the Orioles, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (back) will make his next minor-league rehab start Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Milwaukee at 53-31 is 22 games over .500 and pulling away in the NL Central. The Brewers have their own bullpen attrition — DL Hall, Rob Zastryzny, and Carlos Rodriguez are all on the IL — but Misiorowski has been pitching into the 7th inning in 4 of his last 5 starts, which takes a lot of pressure off the back end. For Cincinnati to snap a 6-game losing streak against this opponent, they need a vintage Burns start and something to break their way. Based on everything this series has shown, that's asking a lot.

Sources

MLBCincinnati RedsMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiChase BurnsJacob Misiorowski