Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 52d ago·2 min read
Cincinnati RedsCIN(39-45)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(52-31)
2—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
CIN
020000000282
MIL
20000020—480

Abbott (5-4, 3.90 ERA) draws Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.12 ERA) in game 3 of this 4-game set, first pitch at 7:10 PM CT. It's a rematch — Drohan faced these same Reds 8 days ago and was dominant, holding Cincinnati to 5 hits over 4.1 scoreless innings on 98 pitches. The Brewers gave him a no-decision anyway, but that's a datapoint worth noting.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Reds(39-45)
LLLWW
2
Brewers(52-31)
WWLLW
4
Best BetBrewers -168
Pregame

The Brewers are priced as comfortable favorites and the case for them is straightforward. Milwaukee has handled this Reds lineup all series, and Drohan already held Cincinnati scoreless in his last start against them 8 days ago. The Reds are missing multiple regulars and rank near the bottom of the NL in run production — lay the Brewers.

Abbott has quietly made his rough start to the season feel like ancient history. After posting a 6.59 ERA across his first 6 starts, he has held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 9 outings — a 2.29 ERA over 51 innings. Cincinnati made him the Opening Day starter for a reason, and he looks like that guy again. The Reds need exactly that version tonight.

Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
(5-5)·4.11 ERA
Jun 26 @ Pirates
ND
5.1IP
3ER
6K
1BB
94P
07/01 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Shane Drohan
(4-3)·3.09 ERA
Jun 24 @ Reds
ND
4.1IP
0ER
5K
3BB
98P
07/01 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(39-45)
Jun 30L@ Brewers2-7
Jun 29L@ Brewers3-5
Jun 28L@ Pirates4-9
Jun 27W@ Pirates9-7
Jun 26W@ Pirates6-4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(52-31)
Jun 30Wvs Reds7-2
Jun 29Wvs Reds5-3
Jun 28Lvs Cubs3-4
Jun 27Lvs Cubs2-8
Jun 26Wvs Cubs6-2

The Brewers at 52-31 are running away with the NL Central by 5.5 games, and this series has the feel of a team solidifying that distance. They dropped 2 of 3 to the Cubs at home last weekend, then immediately turned around and beat Cincinnati 5-3 and 7-2 on back-to-back nights. Milwaukee's pitching staff ranks 2nd in MLB ERA and 1st in strikeouts — and the Reds offense, which sits near the bottom of the NL in OPS and runs scored, is exactly the kind of lineup this staff feasts on.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(9)
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILDane Myers (CF) — The Reds placed Myers on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a left shoulder contusion, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Manager Terry Francona said that Hayes (back) will face live pitching at the Reds' facility in Arizona on Wednesday or Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/29
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) will make his season debut for the Reds on Saturday versus the Orioles, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (back) will make his next minor-league rehab start Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

The Reds' injury list tells the real story of this roster right now. Ke'Bryan Hayes is still out with his back. Outfielders Dane Myers and Blake Dunn are both sidelined, stripping depth from a lineup that doesn't have much to spare. Hunter Greene is the light at the end of the tunnel — he's reportedly set to make his season debut against Baltimore on Saturday after returning from elbow surgery — but that's Saturday. Tonight it's Abbott, a thin lineup, and a Brewers team that has already beaten them twice this week. Cincinnati needs a win just to avoid going home swept.

Sources

MLBCincinnati RedsMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiAndrew AbbottShane Drohan