Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 53d ago·2 min read
Cincinnati RedsCIN(39-44)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(51-31)
2—7
FINAL
123456789RHE
CIN
100001000260
MIL
01041001—7140

Brandon Sproat (2-4, 5.43 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee against Rhett Lowder (3-5, 4.81 ERA) in Game 2 of this 4-game set, with first pitch at 6:40 PM CT at American Family Field. The subplot: Sproat is going against these same Reds for the second time in 7 days, and what he did the first time was borderline unfair.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Reds(39-44)
LLWWL
2
Brewers(51-31)
WLLWW
7
Best BetBrewers -179
Pregame

The Brewers are a reasonable back here. Milwaukee is 51-31, owns Cincinnati in this matchup, and is sending out a pitcher who held these same Reds to 1 hit in his last crack at them. The Reds' lineup is thinning by the day — Myers is hospitalized, Suarez is day-to-day, and Hayes is on the IL — while Lowder's ERA signals he's not a lock to keep this close. Cincinnati's fair win probability sits just under 39%, and given the current injury situation, that might be generous.

Sproat's June 23 outing in Cincinnati set a Brewers franchise mark — 6 scoreless innings, 1 hit, 10 strikeouts, 0 walks on just 80 pitches, the first rookie in Milwaukee history with that line in a single start. He's been carrying a 3.48 ERA across his June starts, a meaningful step forward from a shaky early-season stretch. The Reds couldn't touch him in that outing, and this time he's pitching at home. Lowder's last crack at these Brewers produced 5.2 innings, 8 hits, and 3 earned runs — he needs a sharper effort to keep Cincinnati in this series.

Cincinnati Reds
Rhett Lowder
(3-6)·4.91 ERA
Jun 24 vs Brewers
L
5.2IP
3ER
6K
1BB
100P
06/30 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Sproat
(3-4)·5.16 ERA
Jun 23 @ Reds
W
6.0IP
0ER
10K
0BB
80P
06/30 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(39-44)
Jun 29L@ Brewers3-5
Jun 28L@ Pirates4-9
Jun 27W@ Pirates9-7
Jun 26W@ Pirates6-4
Jun 24Lvs Brewers5-6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(51-31)
Jun 29Wvs Reds5-3
Jun 28Lvs Cubs3-4
Jun 27Lvs Cubs2-8
Jun 26Wvs Cubs6-2
Jun 24W@ Reds6-5

The biggest news heading into Tuesday is Dane Myers, who crashed into the outfield wall at full speed in the fourth inning of Monday's loss while making a running backhanded grab, was carted off the field, and was sent to the hospital for further evaluation. He's listed as out. Blake Dunn is already on the 10-day IL with an elbow issue, meaning Cincinnati is extremely thin in center field. The 1 piece of good news for the Reds: closer Emilio Pagan is set to come off the 15-day IL Tuesday and step back into the ninth inning after rehabbing a hamstring. The bullpen needed it.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(11)
  • Day-To-DayEugenio Suarez (DH) — Suarez (wrist) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Brewers.06/29
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Manager Terry Francona said that Hayes (back) will face live pitching at the Reds' facility in Arizona on Wednesday or Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/29
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Monday that Pagan (hamstring) will be activated from the 15-day injured list Tuesday and is set to regain his role as the team's closer, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • OutDane Myers (CF) — Myers was sent to the hospital for further evaluation after exiting Monday's game against Milwaukee on a cart, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) struck out four and allowed one hit and no walks over 6.1 scoreless innings Sunday in a rehab start with Triple-A Louisville.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) will receive another scan on his UCL on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Monday that he expects Henderson (back) to return from the 15-day injured list before the All-Star break, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

The Brewers have now won 4 straight against the Reds — including a sweep of the 3-game series in Cincinnati June 22-24 — and Milwaukee's bullpen has been a driving force. Aaron Ashby entered Monday's game in the eighth inning and earned his major-league-leading 11th win; Trevor Megill shut the door with a perfect ninth for his 11th save. The Reds' best moment Monday came on an Elly De La Cruz 2-run homer in the fifth, but they couldn't hold the lead. With Milwaukee sitting 20 games above .500 and running away with the NL Central, the Brewers have every reason to keep pushing in this series.

Sources

MLBCincinnati RedsMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiRhett LowderBrandon Sproat