Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 54d ago·2 min read
Cincinnati RedsCIN(39-43)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(50-31)
3—5
FINAL
123456789RHE
CIN
100020000391
MIL
00000212—572

Nick Lodolo (2-2, 5.59 ERA) gets the ball for Cincinnati tonight against Milwaukee's Robert Gasser (1-3, 4.50 ERA), with first pitch at 6:40 PM CT. Gasser just notched his first win in 25 months with 6 solid innings against Atlanta last Sunday — getting him back on track matters for a Brewers staff already managing the IL absences of Logan Henderson and Coleman Crow from the rotation.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Reds(39-43)
LWWLL
3
Brewers(50-31)
LLWWW
5
Best BetBrewers -161
Pregame

The Brewers at -147 price a team that leads the NL Central by 6.5 games and just swept these same Reds a week ago in Cincinnati. With Suárez's hand status uncertain, Elly De La Cruz day-to-day, and Cincinnati's offense already ranking bottom-third in OPS, there is not a strong case for fading Milwaukee here. The Reds are fighting with one arm tied behind their back.

The Reds arrive short on healthy bodies. Suárez was hit by a 92.4 mph fastball in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh, left the game, and is in Milwaukee waiting on CT scan results — the X-rays were inconclusive, and the swelling was still considerable postgame. De La Cruz returned from a hamstring IL stint but remains day-to-day. That's before you get to the fact that Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft are all on the 60-day IL, leaving the rotation threadbare heading into one of the tougher home parks in the division.

Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo
(3-2)·4.60 ERA
Jun 23 vs Brewers
ND
4.0IP
0ER
6K
1BB
75P
06/29 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Robert Gasser
(2-4)·5.24 ERA
Jun 21 @ Braves
W
6.0IP
2ER
7K
1BB
97P
06/29 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(39-43)
Jun 28L@ Pirates4-9
Jun 27W@ Pirates9-7
Jun 26W@ Pirates6-4
Jun 24Lvs Brewers5-6
Jun 23Lvs Brewers0-2
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(50-31)
Jun 28Lvs Cubs3-4
Jun 27Lvs Cubs2-8
Jun 26Wvs Cubs6-2
Jun 24W@ Reds6-5
Jun 23W@ Reds2-0

Milwaukee dropped 2 straight to close out the Cubs series, but a pair of losses doesn't change the big picture for a 50-31 club with a 6.5-game lead in the NL Central. The Brewers rank second in MLB with a 3.42 team ERA and lead the league in strikeouts — they punish lineups that are thin or inconsistent, and the Reds are both right now. Cincinnati ranks bottom-third in the league in OPS and runs scored, and that was before Suárez's hand situation. Jacob Misiorowski has gone 8-1 in 9 decisions out of the bullpen and gives Milwaukee an elite late-inning safety net.

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(11)
  • Day-To-DayElly De La Cruz (SS) — De La Cruz batted leadoff and went 0-for-4 with a walk in Saturday's 9-6 win over Pittsburgh.06/28
  • Day-To-DayEugenio Suarez (DH) — Suarez (hand/wrist) underwent X-rays, which were inconclusive, after his departure from Sunday's 9-4 loss to the Pirates, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.06/28
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.06/18
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/22
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) will have another scan of his UCL on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his overall rehab has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.06/24
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (back) was sent to Triple-A Nashville to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Lodolo's 5.59 ERA looks rough, but his last outing was against these same Brewers on June 23 — 4 innings, 0 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, 75 pitches. He left early and the offense went silent behind him in a 2-0 loss, so he got a no-decision for his trouble. The stuff is there when his command is on. If he can stretch to 6 innings tonight the way Gasser just did in Atlanta, Cincinnati keeps this close. If he reverts to the early-season version, Milwaukee piles on fast and this opener is functionally over by the 5th.

Sources

MLBCincinnati RedsMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiNick LodoloRobert Gasser