Ranger Suarez is the reason Boston is even chalk here. He returned from a hamstring issue on May 14 against his old Phillies and went 5.1 innings, 0 runs, 8 strikeouts on 76 pitches. A 2.44 ERA after that line says the stuff is real, even if the pitch count will still be on a leash. Bailey Falter, meanwhile, is making this start because the Royals' rotation is a triage unit — Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are both on the 15-day IL, and Falter was just activated off the IL himself on May 16 after an elbow issue and a Triple-A rehab. The 10.13 ERA is a tiny sample, but it's not nothing.
- Day-To-DayCeddanne Rafaela (CF) — Rafaela went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, a stolen base and was caught stealing in Friday's 3-2 extra-inning loss to Atlanta.05/18
- Day-To-DayCarlos Narvaez (C) — Narvaez (finger) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Royals.05/18
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris (RP) — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Anthony (wrist) was still sore when taking some swings Monday and will not swing a bat again until at least Friday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story is seeking additional opinions about whether surgery is needed for his sports hernia, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/16
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe (RP) — Coulombe (neck) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Portland on Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Crochet (shoulder) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
- OutBrendan Rodgers (2B) — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez (1B) — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval (SP) — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli (SP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz (2B) — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.05/08
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero (RP) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — Ragans (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic (SP) — Bubic (3-2) took the loss against the White Sox on Thursday, pitching four innings and allowing five runs on five hits and three walks while striking out one batter.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMatt Strahm (RP) — Strahm allowed no hits and a walk while striking out two over a scoreless inning in Friday's win against the Mariners.05/16
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — McArthur will see a specialist after continuing to experience soreness in his right elbow, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
The Boston injury list is the bigger headline. Trevor Story is seeking additional opinions on whether he needs sports hernia surgery. Roman Anthony still isn't swinging a bat through the weekend. Garrett Crochet just got back to a 20-pitch bullpen. Carlos Narvaez is out of Monday's lineup with a finger issue, and Ceddanne Rafaela is day-to-day after getting caught stealing in Friday's extra-inning loss to Atlanta. That's a lineup playing shorthanded against a depleted Royals rotation, which is basically why this line exists where it does.
The market is split in a way worth noting. DK has the spread at Boston -1.5 while Pinnacle is on the -1.0, and the total is 8 at Pinnacle, 9 at DK — a full run apart on the run line and a full run apart on the total. Public money on the Royals side (65% of spread bets, 64% of moneyline bets on Boston) suggests sharps and squares aren't really agreeing. EV on every market is negative, so there's no free lunch here. The cleanest read: if you trust Suarez to give you 5 quality innings, Boston ML is the side the model likes.
Bottom line — this is a get-right spot for the Red Sox if there is one. Suarez has been their best starter since arriving, the Royals are running a bullpen game starter out there, and Bobby Witt Jr. is going to have to do most of it himself for Kansas City. First pitch 6:40 PM local at Kauffman.