Spencer Strider gets the ball for Atlanta and he is starting to look like Spencer Strider again. After a walk-heavy debut at Coors, he punched out 8 Dodgers across 6 shutout innings in his last outing with a hit and 2 walks allowed. He's only 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA because he just got back, but the stuff is playing. Boston counters with Connelly Early, the rookie lefty who's quietly put together a 3-2, 3.16 line in his first big-league rotation run. Real test for him on the road against a lineup that has 8 regulars with a wRC+ over 100.
The injury list is where this thing tilts almost comically toward Atlanta. The Red Sox are without Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Johan Oviedo from the rotation alone, plus Triston Casas and Roman Anthony from the lineup. Yes, the Braves are missing Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy (8+ weeks with the finger), and Jurickson Profar's whole season is gone to the PED suspension — but the depth gap is still a canyon.
- Day-To-DayConnor Wong (C) — Wong is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Yankees, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/14
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris (RP) — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Anthony (wrist) has yet to resume baseball activities, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Crochet (shoulder) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe (RP) — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
- OutBrendan Rodgers (2B) — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez (1B) — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval (SP) — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 7-day ilEli White (CF) — White was placed in concussion protocol following Sunday's victory over the Dodgers, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/11
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Manager Walt Weiss said Wednesday that Acuna (hamstring) won't be activated from the 10-day injured list during Atlanta's homestand, which runs through Sunday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd (RP) — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.05/08
- suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) received a positive update when evaluated last week and is expected to start a throwing program soon, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/12
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Pinnacle has the Braves at -144 on the moneyline with a fair win probability of 57.6%, the run line sitting at -1 (-100), and the total at 8. None of that is shocking. The interesting question is whether you trust Strider to go deep enough to keep this from turning into a bullpen game, because Boston's lineup will take walks and Strider's command isn't all the way back yet.
Take Boston if you believe Early can keep the ball in the yard and Strider's pitch count balloons early. Take Atlanta if you've watched any baseball over the last 6 weeks. The Braves are rolling, they're at home, and the Sox are showing up shorthanded.