The pitching matchup is the kind of thing that should scare Yankees fans. Drew Rasmussen's best start of the year, by Game Score, came against this exact lineup on April 12 when he gave up 1 hit and 0 runs in 6 innings. He counters a Yankees offense that's been allergic to right-handed pitching, slashing .220 against righties as a team. Aaron Judge is the headline symptom: 0-for-4 Friday, a career-high 11 games without an RBI, and a 1-for-24 skid that's dropped his average to .245.
Ryan Weathers has actually been the Yankees' best news of late. He's 16th in MLB with 61 strikeouts in 50-plus innings and is carrying a 1.13 WHIP. Bad news: the Rays are 12-2 against left-handed starters this year. So the splits say Weathers can miss bats and the Rays will hit him anyway. Pick your poison.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon (RP) — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.05/08
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll (C) — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew (RP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan (1B) — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga (RP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayTJ Nichols (P) — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- 10-Day-ILBen Williamson (2B) — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Williamson is not in the lineup for Monday's game versus the Orioles due to back tightness, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/20
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/18
- 10-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — The Rays pulled Lux (shoulder/ankle) off his rehab assignment Tuesday due to a left shoulder injury, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILCole Sulser (RP) — Sulser earned the save Tuesday against the Blue Jays, retiring the side in order in the ninth inning.05/18
- OutJonny DeLuca (RF) — DeLuca was removed from Friday's game against the Yankees with an apparent lower-body injury, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/23
- 60-Day-ILSteven Wilson (RP) — The Rays placed Wilson (back) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMichael Grove (RP) — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — The Rays placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor (SP) — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez (LF) — Dominguez (shoulder) resumed hitting off a tee Wednesday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/20
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH) — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Stanton (calf) is doing "more dynamic stuff" but isn't yet ready to ramp up running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried (SP) — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli (RP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP) — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.05/08
Beyond DeLuca, the Rays are navigating a beaten-up outfield (Jake Fraley out 6-to-8 weeks after hernia surgery, Gavin Lux back on the shelf) and lost Ryan Pepiot for the year to hip surgery. They keep winning anyway. The Yankees are without Max Fried (elbow bone bruise), Giancarlo Stanton, and Jasson Dominguez, which makes the Judge slump considerably more painful than it would otherwise be.
The market still likes the Yankees as a home favorite, but the EV numbers on both sides are negative across the board — this is a game to watch, not a game to force. If you're betting it anyway, the read is simple: Rays are 4-0 in the season series, the matchup data favors Tampa, and Rasmussen has already proven he can shove against this lineup. The Yankees need a pivot game before the deficit becomes a real problem.