Barstool Bush
Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

By Bush StaffUpdated 35d ago·2 min read
Tampa Bay RaysTB(56-40)
Boston Red SoxBOS(48-48)
6—7
FINAL
123456789RHE
TB
0203001006101
BOS
02100040—762

First pitch is 4:10 PM ET, and it's Patrick Sandoval (0-0, 2.08 ERA) against Ian Seymour (6-2, 4.59) in what amounts to a study in contrasts. Sandoval is still stretching out after a two-year layoff following Tommy John surgery, while Seymour is the least likely rotation savior in baseball, a guy who wasn't even a lock for a starting job in spring.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Rays(56-40)
LLLWW
6
Red Sox(48-48)
WWWWW
7
Best BetRays -102
Pregame

The Rays are the better team on paper by a wide margin, 56-40 against a Red Sox club that just clawed back to .500, and the price barely reflects that gap after Boston's hot week. Seymour's last start was ugly, but he's shown he can miss bats when he's right, and Sandoval is still finding his legs off a long layoff. Fade the streak and back the roster with the deeper overall body of work.

Seymour had rattled off a stretch of strong, deep starts before his last time out against Seattle went sideways — he lasted just 3.1 innings and got tagged for 5 earned runs. Sandoval, meanwhile, is on a pitch count as Boston brings him along slowly; his last outing against the White Sox was solid, 4.1 innings and just 1 run allowed, but neither manager is fully trusting either arm to go deep yet, which means both bullpens are going to be doing work at Fenway.

Tampa Bay Rays
Ian Seymour
(7-3)·4.37 ERA
Jul 12 vs Mariners
L
3.1IP
5ER
3K
3BB
78P
07/18 Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Patrick Sandoval
(0-0)·3.32 ERA
Jul 9 @ White Sox
ND
4.1IP
1ER
5K
1BB
65P
07/18 Lineup

Both rosters are banged up in ways that matter. Boston is still without Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, Garrett Crochet and Triston Casas, a list that would gut most contenders, while Tampa Bay is missing Gavin Lux and Jake Fraley out of an outfield that was supposed to be a strength. Neither team is at full strength, which is part of why this series has been so unpredictable.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(56-40)
Jul 17L@ Red Sox3-5
Jul 17L@ Red Sox0-10
Jul 12Lvs Mariners2-8
Jul 11Wvs Mariners6-1
Jul 10Wvs Mariners7-2
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(48-48)
Jul 17Wvs Rays5-3
Jul 17Wvs Rays10-0
Jul 12W@ Mets3-2
Jul 11W@ Mets4-0
Jul 10W@ Mets6-2

Context matters here: Tampa Bay is still the team with the AL East lead and a 56-40 record, built on a rotation that stabilized around unexpected arms like Seymour when the projected starters went down. But the Rays have now dropped 3 in a row, including getting run out of Fenway in Friday's doubleheader, 10-0 and then 5-3. That's not the kind of week a first-place team wants heading into a getaway game.

The Red Sox are the opposite story entirely. Interim manager Chad Tracy has this team playing its best baseball of the season, an 11-game win streak that pulled Boston back to .500 for the first time since late March and into the third wild-card spot. A team that fired its manager in April and looked buried is now playing like it belongs in October.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Fraley (groin) was pulled off his rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A Durham after feeling something in the area of his hernia surgery, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.07/12
  • 15-Day-ILJesse Scholtens (RP) — Scholtens (wrist) is scheduled to pitch three innings in a rehab appearance Tuesday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, MLB.com reports.07/07
  • 15-Day-ILSteven Matz (SP) — Matz (ankle) will embark on a rehab assignment Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — Lux (shoulder) was pulled off his rehab assignment earlier this week, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILSteven Wilson (RP) — Wilson (back) has been sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League to begin a rehab assignment.07/10
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Uceta has yet to resume throwing and will meet with a doctor to have his nagging right shoulder injury examined, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan Heasley (RP) — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILMarcelo Mayer (2B) — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Mayer (forearm) remains shut down from swinging a bat and will undergo new imaging next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 10-Day-ILIsiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) — Interim Red Sox manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Kiner-Falefa (forearm) remains shut down from swinging a bat and will undergo new imaging next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILConnelly Early (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Thursday that Early (elbow) started a throwing program earlier this week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILRanger Suarez (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez (groin) could be activated from the 15-day injured list when first eligible Tuesday to start against the Orioles that night, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has started throwing two bullpen sessions per week, MLB.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will throw a bullpen session next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Thursday that Crochet (shoulder/lat) has yet to resume a formal throwing program and is limited to playing catch with weighted plyometric balls, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Interim manager Chad Tracy confirmed Thursday that Anthony's (finger) recent follow-up appointment with Dr. Gary Lourie revealed no new information about his injury, and the outfielder will continue to rehab at the Red Sox's complex in Florida through at least the All-Star break, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — The Red Sox announced June 28 that Story (sports hernia) is taking part in full baseball activities, MLB.com reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — The Red Sox announced June 29 that Crawford (forearm) has been throwing plyometric balls during workouts at the team's spring training facility in Florida, MLB.com reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Saturday that Casas (abdomen/knee) has been shut down from hitting due to a wrist issue, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/06

There's a real argument that Boston's streak is more mirage than statement — a soft schedule against the Mets and a shorthanded Rays club can inflate a record fast. But there's also a version where a team finally healthy at the right positions and getting quality innings from replacement-level arms is exactly the kind of club nobody wants to see get hot in July. Either way, the Rays have a chance to shut the door on the story before it gets out of hand.

Sources

MLBTampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxPolymarketKalshiIan SeymourPatrick Sandoval