Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

By Bush StaffUpdated 31d ago·2 min read
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(52-49)
New York YankeesNYY(56-44)
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Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA) gets the ball for Pittsburgh looking to avoid a series slide, while Will Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA) takes the mound for New York in an early-evening matchup at 7:05 PM ET.

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Pirates(52-49)
LWLWP
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Yankees(56-44)
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Best BetYankees -152
Pregame

We took the Yankees at -144 and we're sticking with it. Warren's been the more reliable arm all year, and Chandler's control issues are exactly the kind of thing a patient Yankees lineup exploits. The price has since eased to -125, which says the market's found a bit more value on Pittsburgh, but the shape of this matchup still favors New York.

Warren's been the Yankees' quiet stabilizer all year, holding down a rotation spot while Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt worked through injuries. Chandler's stuff has never been the question — it's the command. A walk rate that's ballooned into the double digits has turned too many of his starts into high-pitch-count grinds, and Yankee Stadium's short porch doesn't forgive free passes.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Bubba Chandler
(4-8)·4.49 ERA
Jul 11 vs Brewers
ND
4.2IP
2ER
6K
3BB
97P
07/21 Lineup
New York Yankees
Will Warren
(8-5)·4.14 ERA
Jul 12 @ Nationals
ND
5.0IP
1ER
2K
2BB
83P
07/21 Lineup

Pittsburgh's lineup is running thin. Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin are both on the 60-day IL, Endy Rodriguez is banged up behind the plate, and Spencer Horwitz is only just starting a rehab assignment. The Yankees have their own long injury list — Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Rodon, Schmidt and Fried are all out — but Warren's held the fort well enough that New York's still gotten by.

Pittsburgh actually had life against Cleveland last week, ripping off a pair of 7-1 wins sandwiched around a loss, so this isn't a team without a pulse. The problem is the step up in competition — the Guardians aren't the Yankees, and New York's lineup punishes exactly the kind of free passes Chandler's been prone to giving out.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(52-49)
Jul 20L@ Yankees5-8
Jul 19W@ Guardians7-1
Jul 18L@ Guardians3-5
Jul 18W@ Guardians7-1
Jul 17P@ Guardians0-0
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
(56-44)
Jul 20Wvs Pirates8-5
Jul 19Wvs Dodgers2-1
Jul 19Lvs Dodgers2-8
Jul 19Pvs Dodgers0-0
Jul 17Lvs Dodgers1-2

New York enters having dropped 2 of its last 5 against the Dodgers before finding its footing again with back-to-back wins, the most recent an 8-5 decision over these same Pirates. That's a lineup trending in the right direction just as Pittsburgh rolls into town shorthanded at catcher, first base and up the middle.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B)Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C)Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta.07/08
  • 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP)Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/04
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP)Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF)The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS)The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
(5)
  • 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH)Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILMax Fried (SP)Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that he expects Fried (elbow) to return from the injured list early next week against the White Sox.07/21
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodon (SP)Rodon (elbow) received a second round of injections after throwing about 10 pitches off a mound Friday and could progress to a full bullpen session this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILAaron Judge (RF)Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP)Schmidt (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.07/17

None of this is a death sentence for the Pirates — Chandler has swing-and-miss stuff when he's around the zone, and this rotation has shown it can hang in playoff-adjacent stretches. But New York's the deeper team on paper right now, and it's tough to bet against a lineup that's finally healthy at the top of the order against a starter still fighting his control.

MLBPittsburgh PiratesNew York YankeesPolymarketKalshiBubba ChandlerWill Warren