Barstool Bush
Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 19d ago·2 min read
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(56-56)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(52-58)
2—10
FINAL
123456789RHE
PIT
000100010240
CIN
31320001—10100

Cincinnati sends its Cy Young dark horse to the mound to close out a weekend the Reds mostly lost, while Pittsburgh trots out a veteran still trying to find his footing. Chase Burns has been the one unimpeachable thing about this Reds season, a rookie who's turned into the staff ace. Mitch Keller, meanwhile, is walking a 5.29 ERA into a ballpark where he's already lost once this series.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Pirates(56-56)
WLLLL
2
Reds(52-58)
LWWLW
10
Best BetReds -156
Postgame

The moneyline case hinged entirely on the Burns-Keller gap, and it showed up exactly as advertised. Cincinnati led by 3 after one inning and never trailed, cruising to a 10-2 win that made the -142 price look like a gift. The bear about Pittsburgh's newfound momentum never mattered — the Pirates managed just 4 hits and were finished by the fourth inning.

Pregame

Chase Burns is the whole story here — an 11-game winning streak, a shot at a Reds record that's stood since the 1950s, and a 2.40 ERA that's made Cincinnati 15-5 in his starts this year. The price reflects it, but that's the cost of backing the best arm either roster has run out all season. Take the Reds and the history-chasing ace at home.

Keller's last time out against Arizona was a mixed bag: 5.1 innings, 2 earned, 4 strikeouts, no decision. Not a disaster, but not the form that turns a season around either. Burns' last start against Cleveland went similarly unspectacular by his own standard, 5 innings and 1 earned run with no decision, which for him counts as pedestrian. Both guys are walking in without a ton of swagger, even if the numbers overall still heavily favor the kid in Cincinnati red.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
(6-8)·5.29 ERA
Jul 27 vs Diamondbacks
ND
5.1IP
2ER
4K
1BB
83P
08/02 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
(14-2)·2.47 ERA
Jul 28 vs Guardians
ND
5.0IP
1ER
4K
2BB
89P
08/02 Lineup

This series has been a demolition derby. The Pirates dropped the first two before finally breaking through Saturday, snapping a four-game skid behind a rain-soaked, walk-aided 4-1 win over Andrew Abbott and the Reds bullpen. That victory doesn't erase a brutal stretch for Pittsburgh, who've lost 4 of their last 5 and just placed Ryan O'Hearn on the 10-day IL with a quad strain. Cincinnati, despite going 3-2 over the same stretch, has its own issues piling up on the injury front.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(5)
  • 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — The Pirates placed O'Hearn on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a left quad strain, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/01
  • 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP) — Sisk (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Cruz (hand) has been cleared for all baseball activities, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn will undergo surgery on his right elbow Monday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.07/30
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Steer (1B) — Steer will wear a splint for the next two weeks after being diagnosed with a partial tear of the tendon sheath in his right wrist, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/27
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) was cleared Friday to begin an expedited recovery program, MLB.com reports.08/01
  • 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — Lodolo (finger) threw 50 pitches over three simulated innings of live batting practice Friday, MLB.com reports.08/01
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) allowed one run on two walks while striking out three over two innings for Double-A Chattanooga on Saturday. The left-hander also hit a batter.08/02
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18

The Reds' rotation is a M*A*S*H unit right now. Nick Lodolo is still working back from a finger issue, throwing simulated innings instead of live ones. Brandon Williamson is doing rehab starts in Double-A. Graham Ashcraft is on a long throwing program. That's three potential rotation pieces unavailable, which is exactly why Burns carrying a 12-1 record and a 2.35 ERA matters so much to a Reds team at 52-58 and fading. Pittsburgh isn't dealing with pitching attrition at the same scale, but losing O'Hearn's bat right as the offense searches for consistency is its own quiet problem.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(56-56)
Aug 1W@ Reds4-1
Jul 31L@ Reds7-8
Jul 30L@ Reds2-3
Jul 29Lvs Diamondbacks0-3
Jul 28Lvs Diamondbacks7-8
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(52-58)
Aug 1Lvs Pirates1-4
Jul 31Wvs Pirates8-7
Jul 30Wvs Pirates3-2
Jul 29Lvs Guardians1-6
Jul 28Wvs Guardians2-0

Neither team is playing for much beyond pride at this point. The Pirates sit at 56-56, treading water, while the Reds at 52-58 look like a club whose season is defined more by Burns' individual brilliance than any real playoff push. That imbalance, one true difference-maker on a roster otherwise scuffling, is the whole story of this game and maybe this Reds season.

It didn't take long for that gap to show up on the scoreboard.

Cincinnati jumped on Pittsburgh early and never let up, scoring in four of the first five innings and cruising to a 10-2 win to salvage the series finale. The Pirates managed just 4 hits all afternoon and only found the board twice, once in the 4th and once in the 8th, long after the game had been decided. A split series felt like the fair outcome all weekend, and that's exactly what both clubs got.

Sources

MLBPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiMitch KellerChase Burns