Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
PIT	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	3	11	11	0
PHI	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	9	2

Ashcraft takes the ball at 6:40 PM ET with a 7-3 record and 3.07 ERA through 16 starts, and his last outing was a statement: 10 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1 run in 6 innings against Seattle, making him the first Pirates pitcher since at least 1901 to throw multiple 10-K, walk-free games in a single season — putting him alongside Paul Skenes, Gerrit Cole, and Bob Veale in Pittsburgh record books. Nola (3-4, 5.58 ERA) counters for the Phillies on the other side of this matchup, carrying a season-long ERA that tells one story while his recent work tries to argue another.

Show fees

FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Pirates(42-42)

WLLWW

11

+1.5-194+102o8.5-120

Phillies(47-37)

WLWWW

7

-1.5+199-104u8.5+122

Best BetPhillies -112

Pregame

The market prices this as a coin flip at -102 for the Phillies, which undersells a home team that has gone 12-6 in June, features Harper and Schwarber at the top of the order, and is closing a double-digit division gap. Ashcraft is excellent, but backing a Phillies team playing this well at home against a .500 club at near-even money is the right side.

Nola's real news heading in is that he has gone 3 straight starts without issuing a walk, the fourth time in his career he has strung that together. He has leaned harder on breaking balls after his fastball location fell apart through April and May, and his ERA has dropped from a peak of 6.04. The command is genuinely better. The homer rate is the remaining problem. A near-even moneyline — Pirates -108, Phillies -102 — reflects a market that sees this as a tight game regardless of what the names on the lineup cards say.

Braxton Ashcraft

(9-3)·3.49 ERA

Jun 24 vs Mariners

W

6.0IP

1ER

10K

0BB

86P

06/29 Lineup

Aaron Nola

(3-6)·5.75 ERA

Jun 24 @ Nationals

ND

5.0IP

2ER

5K

2BB

86P

06/29 Lineup

Pittsburgh Pirates

(42-42)

Jun 28Wvs Reds9-4

Jun 27Lvs Reds7-9

Jun 26Lvs Reds4-6

Jun 25Wvs Mariners5-1

Jun 24Wvs Mariners11-1

Philadelphia Phillies

(47-37)

Jun 28W@ Mets5-4

Jun 27L@ Mets2-6

Jun 26W@ Mets2-1

Jun 25W@ Nationals10-5

Jun 24W@ Nationals5-4

Pittsburgh arrives at 42-42 and shorthanded. Both Oneil Cruz (hand) and Spencer Horwitz (hamstring) are on the IL with no return expected until after the All-Star break — GM Ben Cherington confirmed that Sunday. Losing Cruz in the outfield and Horwitz at first base is a real lineup hole, particularly on the road against a Phillies club that has played some of its best baseball of the season in June. The Pirates can survive the absences when Ashcraft is locking up hitters for 7 innings, but there is limited margin for error if he runs into trouble early.

Pittsburgh Pirates

(10)

• Day-To-DayJared Jones (SP) — no06/29
• Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.06/09
• Day-To-DayMitch Jebb (LF)
• Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
• Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
• Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
• 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.06/28
• 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.06/28
• 15-Day-ILWilber Dotel (RP) — Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.06/27
• 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.06/07

Philadelphia Phillies

(9)

• Day-To-DayLiover Peguero (SS) — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.06/18
• Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — no06/18
• Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
• Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
• Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
• Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
• 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — Keller (forearm) has progressed to playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
• 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24

Philadelphia at 47-37 has gone 12-6 in June and cut what was a 10.5-game NL East deficit down to 6.5. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh anchor an offense that has heated up with the summer, and the Phillies come home after winning 4 of 5 on the road — including taking 2 of 3 from the Mets in New York. Citizens Bank Park, a lineup built around legitimate power, and a Nola who has at least rediscovered his command makes this a trickier road spot for Pittsburgh than the 42-42 record would suggest.