Barstool Bush
Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

By Bush StaffUpdated 6h ago·2 min read
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(63-67)
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(78-51)
AT
4:15 PM PT
Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Pirates(63-67)
LWWLW
Dodgers(78-51)
WWWWL
Best BetDodgers -233

Skubal's actual stuff has looked better than his record with the Dodgers suggests, and Los Angeles is priced like the deeper, more talented club because it is one. Jones is a legitimate arm but he's still working back from a serious surgery on a pitch count, which caps how deep he can carry Pittsburgh into the game.

Pirates
  • Jones struck out 7 in 5 innings last time out
  • 3-2 in last 5 with a win over Boston
  • Took Dodgers to a 1-run game in opener
  • Lost staff ace Mitch Keller for the season
  • Missing O'Hearn and catcher Rodriguez
  • 63-67 overall, well back in NL Central
Dodgers
  • Won 4 straight, swept Colorado
  • Acquired Skubal at the deadline for a rotation upgrade
  • 78-51, best record in play
  • Skubal 0-2 with the club despite solid peripherals
  • Bullpen missing Diaz, Casparius, Treinen, Graterol all at once
  • Lost series opener margin was just 1 run

Saturday's 4:15 PM PT first pitch pairs two arms with wildly different backstories. Jared Jones is still building himself back up after missing all of 2025 and the first two months of this season following elbow surgery, and the Pirates have kept him on a short leash ever since his late-May return. Tarik Skubal, meanwhile, is the biggest arm the Dodgers picked up at the deadline, a two-time Cy Young winner now wearing a new uniform and still looking for his footing in it.

Jared Jones
Jared Jones
(2-5)·4.78 ERA
Aug 15 vs Red Sox
L
5.0IP
1ER
7K
2BB
85P
08/22 Lineup
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
(7-7)·2.85 ERA
Aug 16 vs Brewers
L
6.0IP
1ER
7K
2BB
109P
08/22 Lineup

Jones' last time out he was economical and nasty in equal measure, but the workload restrictions mean Pittsburgh's bullpen has to be ready earlier than most clubs. On the other side, Los Angeles has been picking relievers off the injured list one by one all August, and the group behind Skubal is thinner than a club with the NL's best record should have to run with. That gap in relief depth is worth watching more than the names at the top of either roster.

Pittsburgh already saw this Dodgers lineup up close and lost a one-run game to open the set, so there's no mystery left about how competitive these two can be even with the records so far apart. The Pirates arrive in Los Angeles well under .500, but they've also won series against playoff-caliber pitching this month, and that context matters more than the top-line win totals.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(63-67)
Aug 22L@ Dodgers4-5
Aug 19Wvs Tigers4-3
Aug 18Wvs Tigers4-1
Aug 17Lvs Tigers5-8
Aug 16Wvs Red Sox8-3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(78-51)
Aug 22Wvs Pirates5-4
Aug 20W@ Rockies6-4
Aug 19W@ Rockies7-6
Aug 18W@ Rockies11-5
Aug 16Lvs Brewers2-6

The Dodgers have won 4 straight, but three of those came against a Colorado club that isn't testing anybody, and the group has scuffled at times against playoff-caliber arms this month. Pittsburgh, for its part, is 3-2 over its last 5 with real quality mixed in, including a win over the Red Sox, and the Pirates just went toe-to-toe with the Dodgers before dropping the series opener by a single run.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(4)
  • 10-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Rodriguez is gathering a second opinion on his left hip injury, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/17
  • 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that O'Hearn (quadriceps) has been cleared to play catch and take some swings in the batting cage, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Griffin has been cleared to transition out of the splint he had been wearing on his injured left ring finger, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILMitch Keller (SP) — The Pirates placed Keller on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a right arm teres major muscle injury.08/03
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(14)
  • Day-To-DayNewAndy Pages (CF) — Pages went 3-for-4 with a double, two RBI, two runs scored and a walk in Monday's 11-5 win over Colorado.08/22
  • 10-Day-ILDalton Rushing (C) — Rushing (elbow) participated in batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.08/15
  • 15-Day-ILWill Klein (RP) — Klein said Friday that he's largely symptom-free from the loose elbows in his right elbow, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.08/21
  • 15-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that MRI results on Diaz's neck revealed no additional damage, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.08/19
  • 15-Day-ILJustin Wrobleski (SP) — The Dodgers placed Wrobleski on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to left forearm inflammation.08/16
  • 60-Day-ILWill Smith (C) — Smith (neck) participated in live batting practice Friday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.08/21
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) struck out five and allowed no hits and no walks over three shutout innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City.08/21
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) struck out nine batters and gave up one run on one hit and one walk over 5.1 innings during a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Oklahoma City.08/21
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — Miller (shoulder) struck out three and allowed two hits and one walk over three scoreless innings in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Oklahoma City.08/18
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Treinen (RP) — Treinen (elbow) kicked off a minor-league rehab assignment with Single-A Ontario on Saturday, MLB.com reports. He tossed a scoreless and hitless inning while striking out two batters.08/18
  • 60-Day-ILKris Bubic (SP) — Bubic (shoulder/elbow) is hoping to begin a minor-league rehab assignment around early September, MLB.com reports.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) made the third appearance of his rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Oklahoma City, allowing one earned run on no hits and four walks while recording just one out.08/02
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08

Both injury boards are heavy on pitching, which is the story of this series more than either lineup. Pittsburgh is already without Mitch Keller for the year and is still nursing Ryan O'Hearn back from a quad issue, while the Dodgers are stacking rehab assignments for Edwin Diaz, Ben Casparius and Blake Treinen at once. Whichever bullpen holds up better over 9 innings probably decides this one more than the names starting it.

Sources

MLBPittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles DodgersPolymarketKalshiJared JonesTarik Skubal