The pitching matchup is the part that doesn't favor the Bucs on paper. Eduardo Rodriguez has been Arizona's most reliable starter so far at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA, even if his last outing was a no-decision against Milwaukee where he only got through 4.2 innings. Bubba Chandler, meanwhile, has been chewed up in his last two — 9 runs across 9 innings — and the rookie right-hander is going to need a clean first inning at Chase or this gets ugly fast.
The market reflects all of that. Arizona is the home favorite at -122 with the total parked at 9. Nothing here screams value — both sides are slightly negative EV — but the public is leaning home and over, which tracks with the matchup and the venue.
Health is the other reason this Diamondbacks team is wobbling. Corbin Burnes is still on the 60-day with the elbow, A.J. Puk is out of the bullpen, Pavin Smith had elbow surgery, and Carlos Santana is on a rehab assignment in Reno. That's a lot of names not in the lineup or rotation. The Pirates aren't exactly whole either — Jared Jones is rehabbing, Mike Clevinger is six weeks out with an MCL sprain — but the rotation hit is more manageable when you don't lean on the bullpen as hard.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.04/20
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher (RF) — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.04/20
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.04/16
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.04/16
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.04/02
- SuspensionChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski's suspension for intentionally throwing at Sal Stewart during Saturday's game versus the Reds has been reduced to two games, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) struck out five over three perfect innings in his first rehab start with Single-A Bradenton on Wednesday.04/30
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.03/31
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno on Saturday.05/03
- 10-Day-ILTyler Locklear (1B) — The Diamondbacks assigned Locklear (elbow) to a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Saturday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.05/02
- OutA.J. Vukovich (CF) — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.04/18
- OutDerek Law (RP) — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.01/28
- OutTommy Henry (RP) — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.12/03
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.04/22
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.04/22
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith (1B) — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.04/18
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.04/07
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.03/25
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.03/25
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.03/25
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.02/11
Bottom line: Arizona has the better arm on the mound and the home dirt, but they're the team running on fumes. If Chandler can get out of the first 3 innings without handing Arizona a free crooked number, Pittsburgh has a real shot to keep the recent run going. If he can't, the D-Backs finally get the bounce-back game they've been waiting all week for.