Barstool Bush
Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 15d ago·2 min read
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(57-59)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(71-43)
2—5
FINAL
123456789RHE
PIT
000200000260
MIL
10102100—570

Pittsburgh sent right-hander Braxton Ashcraft (11-4, 4.03 ERA) to the mound, fresh off a sharp 5-inning, 1-run outing against the Reds. Milwaukee countered with Dustin May (5-7, 4.34), who was efficient in his last turn against the Cubs. First pitch went off at 1:10 PM CT at American Family Field.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Pirates(57-59)
LLWLW
2
Brewers(71-43)
WWLLW
5
Best BetBrewers -139
Postgame

Milwaukee delivered exactly what the price implied, scoring in four different innings to win 5-2 and never letting Pittsburgh's 4th-inning rally hold up for long. The lineup depth we leaned on showed up — no single Brewer needed a monster night, just steady contact across the board. Ashcraft kept it competitive into the middle innings, but the roster edge from our pre-game case was the story by the end.

Pregame

Milwaukee's the better team by a wide margin right now, and the price reflects it without being prohibitive. The Brewers have taken 2 of 3 this week and their lineup has been the difference-maker even on nights their pitching wobbles. Back Milwaukee to close the series out at home.

Milwaukee took the field a little banged up at the top of the roster — Jake Bauers (abdomen) was out again, and Kyle Harrison, who'd struck out 8 straight Pirates in his return from the IL before cramping in both calves and exiting early, per MLB.com, wasn't walking through that door either. Pittsburgh's absences run deeper: Oneil Cruz remains out with no set return timeline for his hand injury, and Mitch Keller and Konnor Griffin are both on the 60-day list. None of that stopped the sportsbooks from installing the Brewers as the clear favorites.

Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft
(13-5)·3.68 ERA
Aug 1 @ Reds
W
5.0IP
1ER
5K
1BB
69P
08/06 Lineup
Dustin May
Dustin May
(6-8)·4.57 ERA
Jul 29 vs Cubs
ND
5.0IP
0ER
3K
2BB
70P
08/06 Lineup

And the favorites held up their end. Pittsburgh's only offense came in a bunch — a 2-run 4th that tied the game — but Milwaukee answered right back, scoring in each of the next two innings to pull away for good.

The linescore tells the story: Milwaukee spread its offense across four different innings while Pittsburgh managed just the one big frame. That's been the theme of this series — the Pirates have had their moments, taking one of the first three games, but they haven't been able to sustain anything for more than an inning or two against a Brewers offense that just keeps finding the next run.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(57-59)
Aug 5L@ Brewers2-4
Aug 4L@ Brewers2-4
Aug 3W@ Brewers4-3
Aug 2L@ Reds2-10
Aug 1W@ Reds4-1
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(71-43)
Aug 5Wvs Pirates4-2
Aug 4Wvs Pirates4-2
Aug 3Lvs Pirates3-4
Aug 2L@ Angels0-3
Aug 2W@ Angels3-1

Milwaukee's form card tells the same story at a bigger scale — the Brewers came in having won 2 straight and taken 2 of the first 3 in this set, riding one of the better records in baseball at 71-43. Pittsburgh, at 57-59, is scuffling under a rash of injuries that go beyond Cruz — Ryan O'Hearn's out with a quad strain and rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin is shelved too, thinning out a lineup that already needed Ashcraft to be perfect.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(4)
  • 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — The Pirates placed O'Hearn on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a left quad strain, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/01
  • 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — General manager Ben Cherington said that there is no timeline for Cruz (hand) to return from the injured list, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/06
  • 60-Day-ILMitch Keller (SP) — The Pirates placed Keller on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a right arm teres major muscle injury.08/03
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(10)
  • Day-To-DayJake Bauers (1B) — Bauers (abdomen) remains out of the lineup for Thursday's contest versus the Pirates.08/06
  • Day-To-DayKyle Harrison (SP) — Harrison was removed from Wednesday's game against Pittsburgh with an apparent injury, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.08/06
  • 10-Day-ILSal Frelick (RF) — Frelick (shoulder) began a hitting progression early last week and started a throwing progression Friday, MLB.com reports.08/03
  • 15-Day-ILJoJo Romero (RP) — The Brewers acquired Romero (abdomen) and Dustin May from the Cardinals on Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.08/03
  • 15-Day-ILJoel Kuhnel (RP) — Kuhnel (shoulder) retired two of the five batters he faced and was charged with two earned runs on three hits and no walks in a rehab appearance Sunday for Triple-A Nashville.08/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff announced Saturday that he will undergo season-ending capsule repair surgery on his right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.07/16
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

None of it changes the standings math. Milwaukee keeps pulling away in the Central race, and Pittsburgh's stuck searching for answers with a beat-up roster and a rotation that just lost Mitch Keller to a 60-day injured list stint. Thursday's finale was one more data point in a season that's increasingly lopsided.

Sources

MLBPittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiBraxton AshcraftDustin May