Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
PIT	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	8	1
MIL	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	6	1

Brandon Sproat (3-6, 5.17) took the ball for Milwaukee against Pittsburgh rookie Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.36), and on paper it read like a mismatch in the Brewers' favor. Chandler has been erratic all year, and Sproat was fresh off a loss to the Giants. But rotations don't always follow the standings, and Monday was a reminder of that.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Pirates(56-57)

LWLLL

4

+1.5-150+138o8.5+104

Brewers(69-42)

LWWLW

3

-1.5+150-141u8.5-102

Best BetBrewers -149

Postgame

This one didn't come close to holding. Sproat's shaky command was the exact bear case we flagged, and it showed up in a big way as Pittsburgh built a 4-0 lead by the 4th. Milwaukee's bats clawed back to 4-3 but stalled out over the final 3 innings, and the Brewers' record-and-talent edge never translated to the scoreboard.

Pregame

Milwaukee's the better team on paper by a wide margin, and the market prices it that way with the Brewers as clear favorites. Pittsburgh's lineup is without Ryan O'Hearn for the next 6-to-8 weeks, which stings against a Brewers club that grinds out at-bats rather than needing one big swing. Backing the Brewers at home is the straightforward, correct read even with Pittsburgh's recent edge in this head-to-head.

The bigger pitching story in Pittsburgh actually broke hours before first pitch: the Pirates placed Mitch Keller on the 60-day injured list with a right arm teres major injury, officially ending his season and leaving the rotation thinner behind Chandler and Paul Skenes. Milwaukee, meanwhile, went the opposite direction at the deadline, adding rotation and bullpen pieces in Dustin May and JoJo Romero from the Cardinals in a rare in-division trade after missing out on Tarik Skubal.

Bubba Chandler

(6-8)·4.23 ERA

Jul 28 vs Diamondbacks

ND

4.0IP

3ER

3K

1BB

91P

08/03 Lineup

Brandon Sproat

(3-7)·5.27 ERA

Jul 27 @ Giants

L

6.0IP

3ER

5K

3BB

97P

08/03 Lineup

None of that swung the price much. Milwaukee opened as a heavy favorite on the moneyline and run line, with sharp money piling onto the Brewers side pregame -- 27 tracked bets worth just over $2,100, most of it stacked on Milwaukee. The board liked the home team. The board was wrong.

Pittsburgh did its damage early and often, plating 3 in the 3rd and adding another in the 4th to build a 4-0 cushion before Milwaukee's bats woke up. The Brewers answered with a run in the 5th and 2 more in the 6th to cut it to 4-3, but they couldn't finish the rally -- 3 scoreless innings to close it out let the Pirates escape with the win despite being outhit only 8-6.

Pittsburgh Pirates

(56-57)

Aug 2L@ Reds2-10

Aug 1W@ Reds4-1

Jul 31L@ Reds7-8

Jul 30L@ Reds2-3

Jul 29Lvs Diamondbacks0-3

Milwaukee Brewers

(69-42)

Aug 2L@ Angels0-3

Aug 2W@ Angels3-1

Aug 1W@ Angels6-2

Jul 29L@ Giants3-16

Jul 29W@ Giants8-2

It's the kind of result that looks better on Pittsburgh's ledger than its overall season does. The Pirates have been streaky all year, and Chandler -- still very much a Rookie of the Year candidate despite the walk issues that have plagued him -- got enough length and enough swings-and-misses to hand a lead to the bullpen. Sproat's shaky command continues to be the swing factor for Milwaukee's rotation depth, and it bit them again.

Pittsburgh Pirates

(6)

• 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — The Pirates placed O'Hearn on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a left quad strain, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.08/01
• 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP) — Sisk (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/29
• 60-Day-ILMitch Keller (SP) — The Pirates placed Keller on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a right arm teres major muscle injury.08/03
• 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Cruz (hand) has been cleared for all baseball activities, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/29
• 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/21
• 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11

Milwaukee Brewers

(9)

• 10-Day-ILSal Frelick (RF) — Frelick (shoulder) began a hitting progression early last week and started a throwing progression Friday, MLB.com reports.08/03
• 15-Day-ILKyle Harrison (SP) — Harrison (elbow/forearm) is ready to go for Wednesday's start against the Pirates, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.08/03
• 15-Day-ILJoJo Romero (RP) — The Brewers acquired Romero (abdomen) and Dustin May from the Cardinals on Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.08/03
• 15-Day-ILJoel Kuhnel (RP) — Kuhnel (shoulder) retired two of the five batters he faced and was charged with two earned runs on three hits and no walks in a rehab appearance Sunday for Triple-A Nashville.08/03
• 60-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff announced Saturday that he will undergo season-ending capsule repair surgery on his right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.07/18
• 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.07/16
• 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/05
• 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
• 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

For a Brewers team that just spent its deadline capital trying to armor up for October, a night like this is a shrug-it-off loss in a 162-game season -- but it's also a reminder that a 69-42 record doesn't guarantee anything on a given Monday against a team with nothing to lose.