The pitching gap on paper is the story. Kevin Gausman has been the one steady thing in Toronto's rotation — a 3.45 ERA, his 2,000th career strikeout already in the books from his May 11 start against Tampa, and now stepping in front of a lineup that's been without Ryan O'Hearn and Joey Bart. Bubba Chandler, meanwhile, has lost his last four decisions and walked 17 hitters across them, including a shutout loss to the Phillies on May 16 where he gave up 5 runs. A 5.14 ERA against a Blue Jays lineup that just figured out how to score again is not the spot you draw up.
Toronto closing as a -158 home favorite tracks with the pitching mismatch and roughly nothing else. The Jays are still a sub-.500 team that's been crushed by the IL — Berrios just had Tommy John, Scherzer is throwing 20-pitch bullpens, Shane Bieber is at best weeks away, and Alejandro Kirk still can't take full BP. The bullpen lost Tommy Nance and Joe Mantiply inside a week. So when Gausman exits, the math gets a lot messier for the home side.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.05/17
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) will head to Triple-A Indianapolis on Saturday to make the fifth start of his rehab assignment, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- Day-To-DayJesus Sanchez (RF) — Sanchez (chest) is absent from the lineup for Thursday's game against the Yankees.05/21
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk has not been cleared to take full batting practice yet because he still feels a bit of soreness in his surgically repaired left thumb while hitting, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Barger (elbow) was in Toronto for a follow-up exam Monday, seeking the green light to start hitting and throwing Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes (RF) — Lukes (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Mantiply on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to May 18, due to left knee inflammation.05/19
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm/thumb/ankle) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Monday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.05/18
- developmental listFernando Perez (P)
- 15-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Wednesday that Bieber (elbow) could begin pitching in rehab games by the end of next week "if all goes well," Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/20
- 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that Garcia's (elbow) next rehab outing in the rookie-level Florida Complex League will be delayed for at least a couple of days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Pittsburgh's medical chart isn't pretty either. O'Hearn is looking at roughly four weeks with a moderate quad strain, Bart is banged up behind the plate, and Mike Clevinger is staring at six weeks with an MCL sprain. Jared Jones is at least making his fifth rehab start in Indianapolis on Saturday, which is something, but it doesn't help tonight.
The total sits at 8 and that feels honest — Gausman keeps games quiet, Chandler keeps games short and walk-heavy, and the Pirates offense without O'Hearn isn't exactly the '27 Yankees. If you want to bet this thing, the Pirates +146 has the value on paper, but you're essentially betting that Chandler stops walking the ballpark for one night. Pick your poison.