Barstool Bush
Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

By Bush StaffUpdated 6d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(65-58)
Minnesota TwinsMIN(60-63)
9—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
PHI
0100700019130
MIN
000001000190

Jesús Luzardo and Connor Prielipp took the mound at 6:10 PM CT Saturday, and the gap between them showed up almost immediately. Luzardo came in riding one of the better strikeout arms in the league, while Prielipp, a rookie who'd flashed real promise early in the year, had been fading hard as the league adjusted to him.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Phillies(65-58)
WLLWW
9
Twins(60-63)
LWLWL
1
Best BetPhillies -156
Postgame

Luzardo delivered exactly what the pick banked on — 6.2 innings, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts — and the offense made the bullpen question irrelevant by scoring seven in the fifth. The bear case about a shaky Phillies pen never got tested; Philadelphia won going away, 9-1.

Pregame

Philadelphia is priced as the clear favorite here, and the price reflects a team that's gone 43-22 since Don Mattingly took over in late April. Luzardo gives them a real edge on the mound after a 12-strikeout outing his last time out, and that's worth backing even at a short number.

That fade continued in the worst way. Minnesota's rotation has been gutted for months — Joe Ryan, Pablo López, David Festa, Cole Sands and Mike Paredes are all shelved, which is exactly why a 23-year-old with a climbing ERA was still starting games in mid-August against a first-place lineup. Philadelphia's own bullpen has been the shakier story lately, but on a night the offense scored early and often, nobody needed to find out how shaky.

Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo
(11-5)·3.35 ERA
Aug 9 vs Blue Jays
ND
7.0IP
2ER
12K
1BB
100P
08/15 Lineup
Connor Prielipp
Connor Prielipp
(3-7)·5.57 ERA
Aug 9 @ Brewers
ND
5.0IP
3ER
7K
2BB
96P
08/15 Lineup

The board had Philadelphia as the clear favorite going in, and the game did nothing to argue otherwise. What's more interesting is what didn't need to happen — Philly's high-leverage arms barely had to sweat, because the outcome was decided well before the late innings.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(65-58)
Aug 13W@ Twins7-1
Aug 12L@ Cardinals1-7
Aug 11L@ Cardinals0-2
Aug 10W@ Cardinals6-5
Aug 9Wvs Blue Jays7-6
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(60-63)
Aug 13Lvs Phillies1-7
Aug 12Wvs Orioles7-5
Aug 11Lvs Orioles2-5
Aug 10Wvs Orioles9-5
Aug 9L@ Brewers3-4

The Phillies broke it open with a seven-run fifth inning, the whole frame keyed by Bryson Stott's two-run homer and a two-run single from Edmundo Sosa. Bohm went 5-for-5 on the night, and Luzardo cruised through 6.2 innings, allowing just one earned run on seven hits with 9 strikeouts. Prielipp, by contrast, got tagged for 8 earned runs on 8 hits over 5 innings — the kind of line that explains why his ERA has nearly doubled since his hot start in April.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILRafael Marchan (C) — Marchan (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.08/13
  • 15-Day-ILCaleb Kilian (RP) — Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said that Kilian suffered a right side injury during his relief appearance in Sunday's 7-6 victory over the Blue Jays in 12 innings, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports. Kilian allowed an unearned run on one hit over an inning of relief en route to earning his fourth win of the season.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — Keller underwent right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with internal brace and flexor tendon repair Tuesday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Banks (RP) — The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain.07/25
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins
(7)
  • 15-Day-ILJoe Ryan (SP) — Ryan (glute) threw on flat ground Monday, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.08/11
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Banda (RP) — Banda underwent surgery to repair his left lat strain and will miss the remainder of the 2026 season, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.07/09
  • 60-Day-ILMike Paredes (SP) — The Twins transferred Paredes (oblique) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Saturday.08/02
  • 60-Day-ILCole Sands (RP) — Sands will undergo arthroscopic surgery Tuesday to remove loose bodies and bone spurs from his right elbow, Jack Azoulay-Haron of ElEmergente.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILDavid Festa (SP) — Festa (shoulder) will undergo a season-ending double surgery Wednesday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILMick Abel (SP) — The Twins plan to re-evaluate Abel (elbow) on Sept. 1, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILPablo Lopez (SP) — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08

None of this is new for either club's season-long arc. Philadelphia has been the best team in baseball not named the Dodgers since Don Mattingly took over as interim manager in late April, and this was just the latest data point. Minnesota, meanwhile, is still clinging to a Wild Card spot despite a losing record and a rotation held together with duct tape — the front office even bought at the deadline, betting the offense and bullpen could cover for a starting five that keeps landing on the injured list.

Two days earlier these same two teams played in Iowa, with Philadelphia winning that one 7-1 too. Saturday was just the sequel — same result, different ballpark, same problem for Minnesota's staff.

Sources

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesMinnesota TwinsPolymarketKalshiJesús LuzardoConnor Prielipp