The Phillies come in at 23-23 but have won 4 of their last 5. The Pirates sit a game over .500 at 24-22 and have dropped 2 in a row, so the rubber match in this set carries actual stakes for a Pittsburgh team that doesn't usually get this kind of national TV spotlight outside of a Skenes start.
The Skenes line right now is genuinely absurd: he hasn't issued a walk in 5 straight outings. His last time out, 8 scoreless against Colorado on 98 pitches with 10 strikeouts and a no-hit bid into the 7th. Wheeler, meanwhile, hasn't looked like a guy rebuilding anything. He's punched up a 2-0 record across his return starts and the Phillies have basically slotted him right back in as the staff ace.
The market reflects all of it. DK has the Pirates at +141 as home dogs and the total dropped to 8.5 there while Pinnacle hangs it at 7 — that's a full run and a half of disagreement, which tells you the sharper book expects the aces to do ace things. Public money is leaning over and chasing the Phillies on the moneyline; neither side prices out as a great EV play.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.05/08
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop (RP) — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.05/11
- suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMax Lazar (RP) — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayRyan O'Hearn (RF) — O'Hearn was removed from Saturday's game against the Phillies due to right quad discomfort.05/16
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum (LF) — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) threw four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks while striking out four in a rehab appearance with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, per MLB.com.05/13
One thing to watch: Ryan O'Hearn exited Saturday's game with right quad discomfort, so the Pirates lineup behind Skenes could be a little lighter than it was 24 hours ago. They can't afford to lose bats against Wheeler — runs are going to be at a premium, and whichever bullpen gets the ball first is probably the one that loses.