Barstool Bush
Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles

By Bush StaffUpdated 21d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(57-52)
Baltimore OriolesBAL(53-56)
4—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
PHI
201001000460
BAL
20000040—660

This one had a story attached before the first pitch. Painter (1-8, 6.72) got recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on the day of the game, 44 days after getting sent down, and the Phillies handed him the ball for a 7:05 PM ET first pitch at Camden Yards. Across town, Brandon Young (8-2, 3.31) took the mound for Baltimore looking to keep building on a season that's quietly been one of the better rotation stories in the AL.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Phillies(57-52)
LLLWL
4
Orioles(53-56)
WLWLW
6
Best BetPhillies -100
Postgame

The pick missed — Baltimore's bullpen held while Philadelphia's cracked in the 7th, and the Orioles closed it out 6-4.

Pregame

The Phillies came in as the more talented roster on paper even with the rough stretch, and backing Philadelphia's overall depth over a scuffling Baltimore bullpen made sense entering the night. That depth argument didn't show up when it mattered, with the Orioles' pen holding while the Phillies' relief corps got hit for the go-ahead runs. Baltimore's contact-heavy lineup can still ambush a shaky pen on any given night, which is exactly what happened here.

Philadelphia jumped out fast, plating 2 in the 1st, and Painter held his own longer than his ugly season line suggested he might. Young wasn't sharp either early, but he settled in and kept the Orioles within striking distance while his bullpen and lineup waited for an opening. Both clubs came in banged up on the pitching side, with Baltimore especially thin after a string of injuries gutted its bullpen depth.

Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Painter
(2-8)·6.27 ERA
Jun 17 vs Marlins
L
2.0IP
6ER
3K
2BB
56P
07/31 Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Young
(9-3)·3.33 ERA
Jul 25 vs Braves
ND
6.1IP
1ER
6K
2BB
94P
07/31 Lineup

The game stayed a tight track meet into the middle innings, 3-1 Phillies after 3, before both offenses cooled off for a few frames. That kind of stretch usually favors whichever team has more left in the tank late, and on this Friday night that turned out to be Baltimore.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(57-52)
Jul 29L@ Marlins6-8
Jul 28L@ Marlins0-1
Jul 27L@ Marlins7-8
Jul 26Wvs Yankees11-4
Jul 25Lvs Yankees1-3
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(53-56)
Jul 29W@ Tigers10-9
Jul 28L@ Tigers0-14
Jul 27W@ Tigers8-5
Jul 26Lvs Braves2-3
Jul 25Wvs Braves3-2

The Orioles have been streaky all year, winning 3 of their last 5 including a wild 10-9 shootout in Detroit, and they leaned into that identity again here. A 4-run 7th inning flipped a game Philadelphia had controlled for most of the night, turning a Phillies lead into a Baltimore win before the Phillies could mount a real response. Philadelphia got a run back late but couldn't finish the comeback.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILRafael Marchan (C) — The Phillies placed Marchan (knee) on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to July 23.07/24
  • 15-Day-ILLou Trivino (RP) — The Phillies sent Trivino (back) to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — Keller underwent right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with internal brace and flexor tendon repair Tuesday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Banks (RP) — The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain.07/25
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(10)
  • 10-Day-ILAdley Rutschman (C) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Rutschman (wrist) will resume hitting Saturday and could begin a rehab assignment next week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 10-Day-ILSamuel Basallo (C) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Basallo (shoulder) will resume hitting within the next couple days, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 10-Day-ILBlaze Alexander (3B) — Alexander (hand) does not have a timeline to return from the 10-day injured list, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Bassitt (back) will make 1-to-2 more rehab starts before rejoining the active roster, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Helsley (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Selby underwent right shoulder surgery Tuesday to repair his labrum and rotator cuff, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Friday that Bautista (shoulder) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — The Orioles announced that Mountcastle (foot) suffered a "significant" oblique strain while warming up for his first rehab game and will now be out a couple of more months, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILKeegan Akin (RP) — Akin (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/15
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15

Both rosters are stretched thin. The Phillies are without Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas for the season and have burned through bullpen arms with Brad Keller, Lou Trivino and Tanner Banks all shelved. Baltimore's situation is arguably worse, with Adley Rutschman, Chris Bassitt, Felix Bautista and Ryan Helsley all out and the middle of the order still waiting on Rutschman and Samuel Basallo to get healthy. Neither team is playing with a full deck, which made every bounce in the middle innings feel bigger than usual.

The final line tells the story: Baltimore's 7th-inning outburst was the whole ballgame, a 6-4 final that pushed the Orioles a step closer to .500 while dropping the Phillies further into a rough patch that's now 4 losses in 5 games. Painter's return got the headline treatment going in; the bullpen letting the game get away in the 7th is what everyone will remember walking out.

Sources

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore OriolesPolymarketKalshiAndrew PainterBrandon Young