Barstool Bush
Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

By Bush StaffUpdated 83d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(30-28)
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(37-21)
1—9
FINAL
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PHI
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LAD
01122111—9131

The Phillies (30-28) and Dodgers (37-21) close out their four-game set Sunday afternoon, with Philly up 2-1 in the series after stealing a 4-3 win Saturday night. The pitching matchup on paper is a mismatch — Andrew Painter (1-5, 5.40) gets the ball against Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4-4, 3.09) — but Painter has actually been quietly trending the other way.

Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Painter
(1-7)·6.43 ERA
May 24 vs Guardians
L
6.1IP
2ER
3K
2BB
82P
05/31 Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
(7-4)·2.52 ERA
May 24 @ Brewers
W
7.0IP
1ER
3K
1BB
92P
05/31 Lineup

Painter's headline numbers still read like a rookie who got punched in the mouth in April, but his last three starts have been a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and just one homer allowed. The Inquirer called his most recent outing against Cleveland the longest start of his career and 'as good as I've seen him.' Whatever six-pitch tweak the staff made is working. Now he gets to test it on the toughest lineup in baseball.

Yamamoto, meanwhile, is doing Yamamoto things — 0.98 WHIP on the year and coming off 7 innings of 1-run ball in Milwaukee on his last turn. The Dodgers also catch a small break with Jack Dreyer eligible to return from the IL on June 1, which doesn't help today but tells you the bullpen reinforcement is right around the corner.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(30-28)
May 31W@ Dodgers4-3
May 30L@ Dodgers2-4
May 27W@ Padres3-0
May 27W@ Padres4-3
May 25W@ Padres3-0
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(37-21)
May 31Lvs Phillies3-4
May 30Wvs Phillies4-2
May 28Wvs Rockies4-1
May 27Wvs Rockies15-6
May 26Wvs Rockies5-3

Injury-wise the Dodgers are the story. Teoscar Hernandez is down a month with the hamstring, Enrique Hernandez has a 'significant' oblique tear and is looking at 6-to-8 weeks, and the rotation is still missing Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Philly's biggest absence today is more of a happy one — Aaron Nola is on the paternity list after winning Tuesday. Carson DeMartini is day-to-day at short.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(10)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayBryan Rincon (SS) — The Phillies promoted Rincon from Single-A Clearwater to High-A Jersey Shore on Aug. 15.05/27
  • Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • paternityAaron Nola (SP) — Nola (3-4) allowed two runs on three hits and struck out five without walking a batter over six innings to earn the win over the Padres on Tuesday.05/29
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
  • suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(16)
  • 10-Day-ILTeoscar Hernandez (LF) — Hernandez (hamstring) said Saturday that he expects to return from the injured list in about a month, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.05/30
  • 10-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez is expected to be out for 6-to-8 weeks after sustaining a "significant tear" of his left oblique during Tuesday's 15-6 win over the Rockies, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/28
  • 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart (RP) — Stewart faced live hitters early this past week but is still experiencing discomfort in his left foot, per MLB.com.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts relayed Saturday that Glasnow (back) "hasn't gotten over the hump" to increase his throwing progression beyond playing catch, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/30
  • 15-Day-ILJack Dreyer (RP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Dreyer (shoulder) will not go on a rehab assignment and will be activated from the 15-day injured list when eligible June 1, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/29
  • OutKendall George (CF) — George is slashing .295/.409/.370 with three home runs, 100 steals, a 16.3 percent walk rate and a 15.2 percent strikeout rate in 111 games for High-A Great Lakes.05/28
  • 60-Day-ILTommy Edman (2B) — Through three rehab games with Triple-A Oklahoma City, Edman has gone 4-for-9 with two runs and a 1:3 BB:K.05/31
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) will undergo the same "nano scope" procedure Tuesday that Tarik Skubal had earlier in May, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.05/30
  • 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) is facing hitters Tuesday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/26
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Diaz (elbow) is expected to start a throwing progression Tuesday or Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/25
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder/back) is considering surgery, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08

The market isn't buying Painter's recent form — LA is -210 on the moneyline with the total sitting at 8.5 and the over juiced to -129. DraftKings handle is 91% on the Dodgers ML and 77% on the over, so the public is treating this like a get-right spot for Yamamoto. Phillies have already done the hard part this weekend though. Stealing one more in Chavez Ravine and flying home with a series win would be a real statement before the schedule eases up.

Sources

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersPolymarketKalshiAndrew PainterYoshinobu Yamamoto