Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers

By Bush StaffUpdated 66d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(37-35)
Texas RangersTEX(35-38)
6—4
FINAL
12345678910RHE
SD
0010000203691
TEX
0000012001491

Both starters figure to be working with thin margins in this one. The Rangers' rotation has been picking up the tab for a lineup that's averaged barely 2 runs across its last 4 losses, and the Padres are coming off back-to-back shutout-adjacent games in St. Louis where they scored a combined 2 runs. Whoever takes the ball at 3:05 PM CT inherits a lot of stress.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Padres(37-35)
LLWWL
6
Rangers(35-38)
LLWLL
4
Best BetPadres +106
Pregame

The Padres are the play here. Texas is 1-4 in their last 5 with the lineup missing Seager, Carter, Helman, and Jansen, and San Diego — even banged up — has been more competitive in losses than the Rangers have been in anything. Take the road dog before the price tightens.

The story heading into the weekend is the Rangers' Corey Seager problem. Texas put their franchise shortstop on the 7-day concussion IL on June 15 after a home-plate collision with Royals catcher Carter Jensen, and the timing could not be worse for a team that just got blown out 12-2 by Minnesota on Tuesday and dropped 4 of its last 5. Stack Seager's absence on top of Evan Carter (oblique), Michael Helman (hand), and Danny Jansen, and the lineup card looks like a Triple-A audition.

San Diego Padres
Walker Buehler
(5-4)·4.61 ERA
Jun 14 @ Orioles
W
5.0IP
1ER
5K
0BB
86P
06/20 Lineup
Texas Rangers
MacKenzie Gore
(5-7)·4.31 ERA
Jun 15 vs Twins
L
7.0IP
4ER
10K
2BB
102P
06/20 Lineup
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(13)
  • 7-day ilFreddy Fermin (C) — The Padres placed Fermin (concussion) on the 7-day injured list Sunday.06/14
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B) — Cronenworth (concussion) has been participating in light baseball activities and is "ramping up," per MLB.com.06/08
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) continues to rehab in Arizona but hasn't yet been scheduled for a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 10-Day-ILMiguel Andujar (DH) — Andujar (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds.06/13
  • bereavementMason Miller (RP) — Miller secured the save Sunday against the Orioles, throwing 1.1 clean innings. He struck out three.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) made his first rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, tossing 2.1 scoreless innings.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) tossed four scoreless innings for Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, allowing one hit and issuing one walk while striking out two batters.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) progressed to throwing from 90 feet with some intensity June 10, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
(13)
  • Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott (SS) — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.04/07
  • 7-Day ILCorey Seager (SS) — The Rangers placed Seager on the 7-day concussion injured list Monday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.06/15
  • 10-Day-ILMichael Helman (CF) — The Rangers placed Helman (hand) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.06/14
  • 10-Day-ILEvan Carter (CF) — The Rangers placed Carter (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Saturday.06/13
  • 10-Day-ILDanny Jansen (C) — Jansen is not in the Rangers' starting lineup against the Guardians on Friday.06/06
  • 15-Day-ILJalen Beeks (RP) — Beeks (2-1) earned the win in relief Saturday against the Cubs after tossing 1.1 scoreless innings. He struck out one with no hits or walks allowed.06/11
  • 15-Day-ILChris Martin (RP) — The Rangers placed Martin on the 15-day injured list Monday with a right shoulder impingement.06/01
  • OutDeclan Cronin (RP) — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.05/08
  • OutNabil Crismatt (SP) — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Montgomery (SP) — Montgomery (elbow) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILRobert Garcia (RP) — The Rangers transferred Garcia (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILCarter Baumler (RP) — Baumler (intercostal) has been shut down from his rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.05/23
  • 60-Day-ILCody Bradford (SP) — Bradford (elbow) began throwing from 60 feet during the Rangers' most recent homestand, MLB.com reports05/10

San Diego isn't healthy either — they're just less actively on fire. Jake Cronenworth and Freddy Fermin are both out with concussions, Luis Campusano (toe) and Miguel Andujar (hamstring) haven't been available, and the rotation is still missing Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and German Marquez. That's not a depth issue, that's a roster crisis. The Padres have stayed above .500 anyway at 37-35, which is the part that should worry Texas.

Recent form tells you who's been holding it together. The Padres took 2 of 3 in Baltimore last week behind a 9-3 thumping and a tidy 5-2 win, then ran into a buzzsaw against the Cardinals — getting one-hit by Dustin May on Monday and losing 3-2 on Tuesday. Tight losses to a good team is a much different vibe than the Rangers' 10-run and 10-run blowouts to the Red Sox and Twins. Texas is 35-38 and starting to look like the calendar is catching them.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(37-35)
Jun 16L@ Cardinals2-3
Jun 15L@ Cardinals0-3
Jun 14W@ Orioles5-2
Jun 13W@ Orioles9-3
Jun 12L@ Orioles3-7
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
(35-38)
Jun 17Lvs Twins2-12
Jun 16Lvs Twins2-4
Jun 14W@ Red Sox6-4
Jun 13L@ Red Sox3-6
Jun 12L@ Red Sox1-10

Saturday's series opener-plus-one feels like a get-right spot for whichever side throws strikes. The Rangers desperately need a home win in front of fans who watched them get embarrassed Tuesday night. The Padres, knowing how shallow this Texas lineup is right now without Seager, should be the team pressing the gas. If San Diego's bullpen — Mason Miller back from bereavement and reportedly available — gets the ball with a lead in the 7th, this is a game they're built to close.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresTexas RangersPolymarketKalshiWalker BuehlerMacKenzie Gore