Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles

By Bush StaffUpdated 70d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(35-33)
Baltimore OriolesBAL(34-37)
9—3
FINAL
123456789RHE
SD
4000201119100
BAL
2000001003100

Randy Vasquez (5-4, 3.63) vs. Trey Gibson (1-1, 4.24) is the listed Saturday card at Camden Yards, first pitch 4:05 PM ET. Vasquez is the steadier name on paper, but he's coming off a 4-inning, 4-earned dud against the Mets, and Gibson's last time out was a 4.2-inning, 3-run loss to Seattle where he didn't punch out a single hitter. Neither guy is going deep — bullpens decide this one.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Padres(35-33)
LWLWL
9
Orioles(34-37)
WWWLL
3
Best BetOrioles -132
Pregame

Orioles at -126 isn't a steal but it's the right side. Baltimore has won 3 straight, just beat this same Padres team 7-3 on Friday, and gets Vasquez coming off a 4-inning meltdown against the Mets. San Diego's road bats outside of Tatis have nothing going.

The Padres walked into Baltimore needing to slow somebody down and instead watched Gunnar Henderson swat his 100th career homer in a 7-3 Friday loss. That's now 6 straight road losses for San Diego, and the offense outside of Fernando Tatis Jr. has been quiet. Tatis is the one thing humming — he's hitting .376 over his last 21 games, tied with Shohei Ohtani for most hits in baseball in that window.

San Diego Padres
Randy Vásquez
(6-5)·4.17 ERA
Jun 7 vs Mets
L
4.0IP
4ER
3K
2BB
75P
06/13 Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Trey Gibson
(1-2)·5.64 ERA
Jun 8 vs Mariners
L
4.2IP
3ER
0K
1BB
68P
06/13 Lineup
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(35-33)
Jun 12L@ Orioles3-7
Jun 10Wvs Reds5-4
Jun 10Lvs Reds3-5
Jun 9Wvs Reds6-2
Jun 7Lvs Mets3-7
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(34-37)
Jun 12Wvs Padres7-3
Jun 11Wvs Mariners7-5
Jun 10Wvs Mariners7-2
Jun 9Lvs Mariners5-6
Jun 8Lvs Mariners3-6

Baltimore's not exactly a juggernaut at 34-37, but they've found something. 5 wins in their last 6, Pete Alonso anchoring the middle of the order with 15 homers, Henderson heating up, and Blaze Alexander hitting .391 over his last 20. The Padres holding up on the road right now would be a small ask of a rotation already missing Musgrove, Darvish, Pivetta, Waldron, and Marquez.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(11)
  • Day-To-DayMiguel Andujar (DH) — Andujar (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds.06/10
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B) — Cronenworth (concussion) has been participating in light baseball activities and is "ramping up," per MLB.com.06/08
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) has been catching bullpens and is swinging pain-free, per MLB.com.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) is scheduled to throw two innings of a bullpen session Tuesday and is on track to start a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso this Sunday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) tossed four scoreless innings for Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, allowing one hit and issuing one walk while striking out two batters.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — The Padres transferred Pivetta (forearm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(15)
  • Day-To-DayJhonkensy Noel (RF) — Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.06/08
  • Day-To-DayLevi Wells (P) — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/28
  • Day-To-DayRichard Guasch (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayWill Robertson (LF) — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers (RF) — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/27
  • 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Helsley (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday, Cordell Woodland of 105.7 The Fan Baltimore reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILCade Povich (SP) — Povich (elbow) will resume throwing bullpen sessions this week, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — Bassitt (back) is travelling to rejoin the Orioles in Toronto on Friday and could make his next start Monday against the Mariners, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILDean Kremer (SP) — Kremer (quadriceps) threw another live batting practice session Thursday at the Orioles' spring training complex and could soon be cleared to begin a rehab assignment, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILYaramil Hiraldo (RP) — Hiraldo (shoulder) threw a bullpen session last week, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — General manager Mike Elias said Friday that Mountcastle is expected to return sometime in late June or July, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
  • 60-Day-ILZach Eflin (SP) — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/08

Baltimore's own injury list isn't short either — no Ryan Mountcastle, no Jordan Westburg, no Zach Eflin, no Chris Bassitt, no Felix Bautista at the back end. Both teams are duct-taping lineups together. The Orioles are just doing a better job of it lately, and at home, against a Padres team that hasn't won a road game in 2 weeks, the vibes lean orange and black.

The market settled on Baltimore -126 with the total at 9.5, and the over has been bought up from -115 to -129 since open. That tracks with the matchup. If Vasquez or Gibson coughs it up early, this thing balloons fast.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresBaltimore OriolesPolymarketKalshiRandy VásquezTrey Gibson