Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

By Bush StaffUpdated 51d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(43-42)
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(56-31)
7—12
FINAL
123456789RHE
SD
2400000017100
LAD
02242101—12170

Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.88 ERA) goes for the Dodgers at 7:10 PM PT against Randy Vásquez (6-6, 4.44 ERA). Sasaki already faced this Padres lineup on June 26 and didn't exactly dominate — 4 innings, 5 walks, 3 earned runs, done. Vásquez hasn't fared much better in his recent work; his last outing on record was against Texas on June 19, where he lasted 3.1 innings before giving up 6 earned runs on 8 hits. Two starters who have been leaking runs, one team that desperately needs length.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Padres(43-42)
LLLLL
7
Dodgers(56-31)
LWWWW
12
Best BetDodgers -187
Pregame

The market has the Dodgers as heavy favorites, and this roster gap earns it. San Diego is dealing with a gutted rotation, a lineup stuck in deep freeze, and the kind of losing momentum that compounds itself — 17 runs across 5 games is historically bad offense. The Padres' fair win probability sits around 36%, and that may even be generous given how completely this week has unraveled for them.

The Dodgers are 56-31 and have won 4 of their last 5, with the lone blip being a 7-1 loss to the Athletics earlier this week. The Padres are in a different universe right now. They dropped 2 at home to the Dodgers last week — including a 15-3 demolition — then flew to Chicago and got swept by the Cubs. The series finale was a 23-3 beatdown where Dansby Swanson alone hit 3 home runs and drove in 8. That is the state of San Diego baseball entering this series.

San Diego Padres
Randy Vásquez
(6-6)·4.71 ERA
Jun 19 @ Rangers
L
3.1IP
6ER
1K
3BB
72P
07/02 Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Roki Sasaki
(3-5)·5.33 ERA
Jun 26 @ Padres
L
4.0IP
3ER
2K
5BB
81P
07/02 Lineup
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(43-42)
Jul 1L@ Cubs3-23
Jul 1L@ Cubs7-9
Jun 30L@ Cubs2-3
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers2-4
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers3-15
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(56-31)
Jul 2L@ Athletics1-7
Jul 1W@ Athletics9-3
Jun 30W@ Athletics9-4
Jun 28W@ Padres4-2
Jun 28W@ Padres15-3

The rotation situation in San Diego has become genuinely grim. Yu Darvish is out with elbow trouble. Joe Musgrove hasn't thrown a meaningful pitch all year. Nick Pivetta, Matt Waldron, and German Marquez are all on the IL with forearm issues. Lucas Giolito just landed on the 15-Day IL with right elbow inflammation. That is 5 starters either out or unavailable, leaving Vásquez to carry far more than his share while a stretched bullpen absorbs the damage.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso later this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDavid Morgan (RP) — The Padres recalled Morgan from Triple-A El Paso on Friday.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) will make another rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) struck out four and allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks across 2.2 innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(16)
  • Day-To-DayMookie Betts (SS) — Betts went 3-for-5 with a double, one RBI and one run scored in Tuesday's 9-3 win over the Athletics.07/02
  • Day-To-DayChris Campos (SP)
  • 10-Day-ILWill Smith (C) — Manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that Smith (neck) is expected to remain out until after the All-Star break, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.07/01
  • 10-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.06/19
  • 15-Day-ILBlake Treinen (RP) — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.06/27
  • OutKendall George (CF) — George (knee) has been rehabbing at the Dodgers' spring training facility in Arizona and is on track to return after the All-Star break, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) has been cleared to begin a throwing program, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08

Sasaki's command has been the story on the Dodgers' side. Manager Dave Roberts said he was "a little surprised" by the regression after Sasaki showed real momentum in May, but the recent walk rates tell the story — 5 free passes in 4 innings against the Padres on June 26 is not a workable number. For what it's worth, the Padres are a favorable matchup when your control is shaky. This lineup has been listless all week, scoring fewer than 3.5 runs per game over the skid. If Sasaki can find the zone with any consistency, it should be a long night for San Diego.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresLos Angeles DodgersPolymarketKalshiRandy VásquezRoki Sasaki