Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

By Bush StaffUpdated 53d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(43-39)
Chicago CubsCHC(46-38)
2—3
FINAL
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SD
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CHC
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Griffin Canning (1-5, 7.38 ERA) draws Shota Imanaga (5-6, 4.40 ERA) at Wrigley Field, first pitch 7:05 PM CT. The on-paper matchup is already lopsided, and the broader context around both teams doesn't do anything to close the gap.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Padres(43-39)
LLWWW
2
Cubs(46-38)
WWLWW
3
Best BetCubs -159
Pregame

The Cubs at -150 is an honest price given what's actually happening on both sides. Chicago is 6-1 in their last 7, scoring at will at home, and facing a starter who has been one of the worst in the league this year. San Diego is 4-11 on the road this month and their offense rates bottom-10 in multiple categories away from Petco. There's no obvious value in backing the Padres here.

Canning has allowed at least 3 runs in 7 of his 10 appearances this season. His last start — June 12 in Baltimore — he went 5 innings, gave up 7 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks. In a more recent appearance, he was pulled after recording just 2 outs while giving up 4 runs. With Germán Márquez and Matt Waldron both rehabbing and expected back before the All-Star break, Canning's grip on his roster spot is getting thinner by the start. Imanaga took a win in his last outing against the Mets but allowed 3 home runs across 5.1 innings — and the forecast has wind blowing out hard at Wrigley tonight, so the long ball exposure isn't going anywhere.

San Diego Padres
Griffin Canning
(1-7)·6.47 ERA
Jun 12 @ Orioles
L
5.0IP
7ER
6K
5BB
93P
06/29 Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
(5-8)·4.17 ERA
Jun 24 @ Mets
W
5.1IP
4ER
4K
1BB
69P
06/29 Lineup
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(43-39)
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers2-4
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers3-15
Jun 27Wvs Dodgers7-1
Jun 25Wvs Braves5-2
Jun 24Wvs Braves7-6
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(46-38)
Jun 28W@ Brewers4-3
Jun 27W@ Brewers8-2
Jun 26L@ Brewers2-6
Jun 25W@ Mets4-3
Jun 24W@ Mets10-5

The Cubs come in with real momentum. They're 6-1 over their last 7 games and have been scoring 6.6 runs per game during a 12-4 stretch, ranking fourth in wOBA across that span. Sunday's win at Milwaukee was exactly the type of game contenders find a way to win — trailing in extras, Seiya Suzuki singled in 2 to take the lead, and Jordan Wicks — called up from Triple-A that same morning — got a game-ending double play to close it. This Cubs team is playing with genuine confidence heading into a series that has Wild Card implications on both sides.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(12)
  • Day-To-DayTy France (1B) — France (wrist) was hit by a pitch after entering as a pinch hitter in the eighth inning of Sunday's 4-2 loss to the Dodgers.06/29
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B) — Cronenworth (concussion) went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and a double Friday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) continues to rehab in Arizona but hasn't yet been scheduled for a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) will make another rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) struck out four and allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks across 2.2 innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(16)
  • Day-To-DayMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Brewers.06/28
  • Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — The Cubs announced Wednesday that Wiggins (elbow) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters at the organization's complex in Arizona and could soon be ready to pitch in games, MLB.com reports.06/13
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that there's a chance Taillon (hamstring) will return from the injured list before the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP) — The Cubs placed Maton (knee) on the 15-day injured list Friday with a right knee injury, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/26
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a return timeline, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Tuesday in a radio appearance that he doesn't expect Steele (elbow) to rejoin the major-league rotation this season, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

San Diego's road numbers make the ask even harder. The Padres are hitting .226 away from Petco Park this season — 28th in MLB — with bottom-10 marks in OBP, SLG, and OPS on the road. They went 4-11 in road games this month entering tonight's opener. The rotation behind tonight's starter is already missing Pivetta, Giolito, Musgrove, and Darvish to serious injury, and first baseman Ty France is day-to-day after getting hit by a pitch in Sunday's finale. At 43-39, the Padres still have something to play for, but they need a much different version of this team than what showed up against the Dodgers.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresChicago CubsPolymarketKalshiGriffin CanningShota Imanaga