Barstool Bush
Predictions

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Game 1

By Bush StaffUpdated 30d ago·2 min read
Baltimore OriolesBAL(49-52)
Boston Red SoxBOS(51-48)
3—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
BAL
0011010003110
BOS
40110000—690

Jake Bennett (5-3, 2.40 ERA) gets the ball for Boston in the 1:35 PM ET matinee, riding a shutout-caliber last outing against Tampa Bay. Dean Kremer (1-2, 5.14 ERA) counters for Baltimore, still trying to find consistency after a rough 2026 that's included a demotion and a long injury layoff.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Orioles(49-52)
PLWWW
3
Red Sox(51-48)
PWWWW
6
Best BetRed Sox -163
Postgame

Hit — Boston won 6-3 behind Bennett, exactly the form-driven case the ml pick was built on.

Pregame

Boston at -163 was the play with Bennett on the mound and a lineup that hasn't lost in weeks, and it cashed easily. The Orioles' offense showed up with 11 hits, but a gutted catching corps and a shaky Kremer start made backing Baltimore's upset price too risky to trust.

The bigger story in Baltimore's dugout is behind the plate. Both Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo are out with wrist and shoulder issues, leaving Chadwick Tromp and Sam Huff to catch Kremer with almost no margin for error against a Red Sox lineup that hasn't stopped hitting in three weeks. Ranger Suarez is at least in the mix to return for Boston in the nightcap, which would be a real boost for a rotation that's already down Garrett Crochet and Connelly Early.

Baltimore Orioles
Dean Kremer
(1-4)·6.50 ERA
Jul 17 @ Astros
ND
4.0IP
2ER
5K
3BB
83P
Boston Red Sox
Jake Bennett
(7-4)·2.90 ERA
Jul 17 vs Rays
W
6.0IP
0ER
3K
1BB
65P

None of that mattered much once the first inning ended. Boston jumped Kremer for 4 runs right out of the gate, and Bennett made it stand up, cruising into a 6-3 final that kept the Red Sox's remarkable run going.

The final line undersells how competitive the Orioles actually were after that first-inning gut punch. Baltimore out-hit Boston 11-9 and clawed single runs across three different innings, but there was no answer for that early hole or for a Red Sox club that's now won its 15th straight, tying the franchise record set back in 1946.

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(49-52)
Jul 21P@ Red Sox0-0
Jul 20L@ Red Sox5-6
Jul 19W@ Astros5-2
Jul 18W@ Astros4-2
Jul 18W@ Astros3-2
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(51-48)
Jul 21Pvs Orioles0-0
Jul 20Wvs Orioles6-5
Jul 19Wvs Rays6-1
Jul 18Wvs Rays7-6
Jul 17Wvs Rays5-3

Under interim manager Chad Tracy, this Red Sox team barely resembles the one that started 10-17 and got Alex Cora fired. Boston is a completely different club right now, and it's happening despite a long injured list of its own — Triston Casas, Roman Anthony and Tanner Houck are among those still on the shelf. The Orioles, meanwhile, keep bleeding pitching depth, with Chris Bassitt, Ryan Helsley, Felix Bautista and Keegan Akin all lost for extended stretches.

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(10)
  • 10-Day-ILSamuel Basallo (C) — The Orioles placed Basallo on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with right shoulder inflammation.07/22
  • 10-Day-ILAdley Rutschman (C) — Rutschman is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox due to a left wrist injury, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILBlaze Alexander (3B) — Alexander (hand) does not have a timeline to return from the 10-day injured list, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Baltimore transferred Helsley (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — The Orioles transferred Bassitt (back) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKeegan Akin (RP) — Akin (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/15
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Saturday that Bautista (shoulder) has been "throwing really, really well" in his bullpen sessions, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby plans to receive a second opinion on his right shoulder before continuing his rehab program, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.06/13
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(12)
  • 10-Day-ILIsiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) — Kiner-Falefa (forearm) has been cleared to start his hitting progression with dry swings, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILMarcelo Mayer (2B) — Mayer (forearm) has been cleared to start his hitting progression with dry swings, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILConnelly Early (SP) — Early (elbow) threw off flat ground out to 120 feet Tuesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.07/22
  • 15-Day-ILRanger Suarez (SP) — Interim Red Sox manager Chad Tracy said that Suarez (groin) is in the mix to return from the 15-day injured list to start Game 2 of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Orioles, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Crochet (lat/shoulder) said Tuesday that he and the Red Sox training staff have no timeline in mind for when he'll be cleared to restart his throwing program, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILZack Kelly (RP) — The Red Sox recalled Kelly (elbow) from Triple-A Worcester and placed him on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story (sports hernia) told reporters Monday that "sometime in August is in play" for him to embark on a rehab assignment, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has started throwing two bullpen sessions per week, MLB.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will throw a bullpen session next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Interim manager Chad Tracy confirmed Thursday that Anthony's (finger) recent follow-up appointment with Dr. Gary Lourie revealed no new information about his injury, and the outfielder will continue to rehab at the Red Sox's complex in Florida through at least the All-Star break, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — The Red Sox announced June 29 that Crawford (forearm) has been throwing plyometric balls during workouts at the team's spring training facility in Florida, MLB.com reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Saturday that Casas (abdomen/knee) has been shut down from hitting due to a wrist issue, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/06

Baltimore sits fourth in the AL East at 49-52, three games back of a Wild Card spot with the trade deadline bearing down, and losing your top two catchers in the same week is a brutal spot to be in right as decisions need to get made. Boston, on the other hand, looks like the last team anyone in the East wants to see right now — and there's still a Game 2 tonight to make it 16.

Sources

MLBBaltimore OriolesBoston Red SoxPolymarketKalshiDean KremerJake Bennett