Barstool Bush
Predictions

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

By Bush StaffUpdated 32d ago·2 min read
Baltimore OriolesBAL(49-51)
Boston Red SoxBOS(50-48)
5—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
BAL
1000121005114
BOS
01200111—6100

Shane Baz (4-9, 4.12 ERA) gets the ball for Baltimore against Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.07 ERA) in a matchup of two arms trying to build on shaky final lines. Baz punched out 9 in his last outing but couldn't escape the 5th, and Tolle's last start ended after just 3.2 innings despite allowing one run — both offenses figured to have a say in how far these guys actually got.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Orioles(49-51)
WWWWW
5
Red Sox(50-48)
WWWWW
6
Best BetRed Sox -147
Postgame

Red Sox won 6-5, cashing the moneyline pick as the win streak carried them past a game Baltimore offense.

Pregame

We took the Red Sox at -142 before first pitch, backing the hotter of two hot teams to keep it rolling in front of the Fenway crowd. Boston's depleted rotation was the obvious knock, but a lineup that had been steamrolling everyone for two weeks was the safer bet to find enough runs. That's exactly how it played out.

Baltimore is down both catchers, with Adley Rutschman out for a wrist issue and backup Samuel Basallo also scratched with a shoulder problem, forcing the O's to piece together a lineup card behind the plate. Boston's rotation is a M*A*S*H unit of its own — Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Johan Oviedo and Kutter Crawford are all on extended absences — but the guys replacing them have somehow kept the machine running.

Baltimore Orioles
Shane Baz
(4-10)·3.86 ERA
Jul 12 vs Royals
ND
4.2IP
2ER
9K
0BB
104P
07/20 Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Payton Tolle
(6-6)·3.30 ERA
Jul 12 @ Mets
ND
3.2IP
1ER
7K
1BB
66P
07/20 Lineup

None of that stopped the vibes at Fenway. Interim manager Chad Tracy has this team playing with zero fear, and the market reflected it — Boston opened as a healthy favorite and the number only tightened as Baltimore's own surge got harder to ignore.

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(49-51)
Jul 19W@ Astros5-2
Jul 18W@ Astros4-2
Jul 18W@ Astros3-2
Jul 12Wvs Royals8-2
Jul 11Wvs Royals6-1
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(50-48)
Jul 19Wvs Rays6-1
Jul 18Wvs Rays7-6
Jul 17Wvs Rays5-3
Jul 17Wvs Rays10-0
Jul 12W@ Mets3-2

Boston's turnaround from 29-43 in late June to a team fighting for a wild-card spot is the story of the summer in Boston, and the Red Sox took that same 13-game winning streak — tied for the second-longest in franchise history — into this one looking to match the 1948 club and inch toward the 1946 record of 15. Baltimore wasn't just happy to be there, either. The Orioles arrived on a 7-game streak of their own, having swept series over Kansas City and Houston to climb back over .500 in the loss column.

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(10)
  • Day-To-DaySamuel Basallo (C) — Basallo (shoulder) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILAdley Rutschman (C) — Rutschman is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox due to a left wrist injury, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILBlaze Alexander (3B) — Alexander (hand) does not have a timeline to return from the 10-day injured list, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Baltimore transferred Helsley (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — The Orioles transferred Bassitt (back) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKeegan Akin (RP) — Akin (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/15
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Saturday that Bautista (shoulder) has been "throwing really, really well" in his bullpen sessions, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby plans to receive a second opinion on his right shoulder before continuing his rehab program, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.06/13
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILIsiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) — Kiner-Falefa (forearm) has been cleared to start his hitting progression with dry swings, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILMarcelo Mayer (2B) — Mayer (forearm) has been cleared to start his hitting progression with dry swings, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILConnelly Early (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Thursday that Early (elbow) started a throwing program earlier this week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILRanger Suarez (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez (groin) could be activated from the 15-day injured list when first eligible Tuesday to start against the Orioles that night, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story (sports hernia) told reporters Monday that "sometime in August is in play" for him to embark on a rehab assignment, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has started throwing two bullpen sessions per week, MLB.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will throw a bullpen session next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Thursday that Crochet (shoulder/lat) has yet to resume a formal throwing program and is limited to playing catch with weighted plyometric balls, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Interim manager Chad Tracy confirmed Thursday that Anthony's (finger) recent follow-up appointment with Dr. Gary Lourie revealed no new information about his injury, and the outfielder will continue to rehab at the Red Sox's complex in Florida through at least the All-Star break, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — The Red Sox announced June 29 that Crawford (forearm) has been throwing plyometric balls during workouts at the team's spring training facility in Florida, MLB.com reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Saturday that Casas (abdomen/knee) has been shut down from hitting due to a wrist issue, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.07/06

Both bullpens carried real questions. Baltimore's relief corps is missing Felix Bautista, Keegan Akin, Colin Selby and now Ryan Helsley for the year or close to it, while Boston's pen has been leaned on hard to cover for the rotation. That combination — two shaky pens, two offenses that had been hitting all month — made this one look like it could turn into a track meet before a pitch was thrown.

And a track meet it was. Boston trailed early before answering with runs in the 2nd and 3rd, and the two sides traded body blows the rest of the way — 21 combined hits, 4 Orioles errors, and the deciding run finally crossing in the late innings. The Red Sox won it 6-5, stretching the streak to 14 and leaving them one win shy of the franchise record.

Baltimore didn't fold, though. Getting 11 hits and pushing across 5 runs against a Boston pitching staff that's been shutting everyone down says the Orioles' bats are for real, even in a loss. That's a group that should keep竞 pushing in this series no matter what the scoreboard said Monday.

Sources

MLBBaltimore OriolesBoston Red SoxPolymarketKalshiShane BazPayton Tolle