Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.21) gets the ball for Baltimore, and the vibes are not great. His last time out he gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings against the Royals, and the local coverage has openly wondered if he's pitching his way out of a rotation spot. A Nationals lineup that's already top-3 in the majors in runs scored is not the soft landing he needs.
Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.02) counters for Washington, and the headline issue with him is length. He's only made it through 5 full innings once in his first handful of starts, walking 4 in 4.2 innings his last time out against the Cardinals. Even with a tidy ERA on the surface, a 1.47 WHIP means traffic, and traffic against an Orioles offense missing Mountcastle, Westburg, Holliday, Kjerstad and Beavers is still… an Orioles offense missing five regulars.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch (SP) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson (LF) — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayKeagan Gillies (P) — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez (SS) — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers (RF) — Beavers (oblique) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.05/13
- 10-Day-ILJackson Holliday (2B) — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in a rehab game with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/09
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILGrant Wolfram (RP) — The Orioles placed Wolfram on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a lower-back strain, retroactive to Saturday.05/12
- 15-Day-ILDean Kremer (SP) — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Kremer (quadriceps) has begun a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/11
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich (SP) — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — General manager Mike Elias said Friday that Mountcastle is expected to return sometime in late June or July, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILHeston Kjerstad (LF) — The Orioles transferred Kjerstad (hamstring) to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/11
- 60-Day-ILYaramil Hiraldo (RP) — The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILZach Eflin (SP) — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester this weekend, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter (RP) — Beeter (forearm) is ready to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/08
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
The Orioles IL is genuinely absurd — 2 Tommy Johns (Westburg, Eflin), Bautista still ramping back from shoulder surgery, Helsley only just playing catch, plus Kremer and Povich down in the rotation. Washington isn't whole either — Trevor Williams and Josiah Gray are both 60-day arms — but Baltimore is the team that's been gutted at every level.
The market makes this a coin flip, which tracks. Pinnacle has the Nats at -107 with a fair win probability of 50.7%, and DK is offering +119 on Washington — that's the only number on the board without a negative EV tag, and the public is still hammering Baltimore (73% of moneyline handle on the road dog at -143). Read into that what you want. Run line and total both grade out negative EV, so if you're playing this one, the home dog is where the math points.
Bottom line: 2 shaky rotations, 1 offense that can actually slug, and a Baltimore club running out lineup cards with half the Opening Day roster missing. Give me unders on Bassitt's strikeout prop and overs on the team-total whiteboard for Washington.