Barstool Bush
Predictions

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles

By Bush StaffUpdated 55d ago·2 min read
Washington NationalsWSH(42-42)
Baltimore OriolesBAL(39-45)
6—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
WSH
003020100670
BAL
200000200451

Kyle Bradish (5-7, 3.64 ERA) faces Zack Littell (6-6, 5.40 ERA) in Sunday's 1:35 PM ET series finale at Camden Yards, a rubber game to close out the Beltway Series with both clubs having split the first 2.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Nationals(42-42)
WLLLL
6
Orioles(39-45)
LWLLW
4
Best BetOrioles -196
Pregame

Baltimore at -189 implies roughly 64% win probability, and the pitching matchup backs that number. Bradish is coming off one of the best starts in the AL this month, while Littell's 5.40 ERA signals real run-prevention risk for Washington. The Nationals won Game 2 but needed extra innings and Baltimore's bullpen to wobble first.

This is as clean a pitching-matchup edge as you'll find. Bradish went 8 shutout innings against the Angels on June 22 — 9 strikeouts, 1 walk, 101 pitches — and he's credited the curveball as his best pitch all season. The Orioles have won 6 of his last 9 outings. Littell is the exact opposite story. He gave up 5 runs in 1.2 innings against Seattle earlier this month, then took the loss to Kansas City on June 17 allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings. That 5.40 ERA is earned.

Washington Nationals
Zack Littell
(7-6)·4.90 ERA
Jun 17 vs Royals
L
5.0IP
4ER
2K
2BB
99P
06/28 Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish
(6-9)·3.61 ERA
Jun 22 @ Angels
W
8.0IP
0ER
9K
1BB
101P
06/28 Lineup
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(42-42)
Jun 27W@ Orioles4-3
Jun 26L@ Orioles1-3
Jun 25Lvs Phillies5-10
Jun 24Lvs Phillies4-5
Jun 23Lvs Phillies9-14
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(39-45)
Jun 27Lvs Nationals3-4
Jun 26Wvs Nationals3-1
Jun 24L@ Angels6-7
Jun 24L@ Angels1-5
Jun 23W@ Angels6-1

The Nationals didn't steal Saturday's game so much as they grinded it out. Luis García Jr. went 4-for-4 with a 418-foot homer to right in the fifth, and Daylen Lile delivered the walk-off single in the 10th to bring in pinch runner Dylan Crews. Foster Griffin threw 7 innings with 9 strikeouts on 112 pitches, and Justin Lawrence — in his Nationals debut — escaped a bases-loaded jam in the 10th to earn his first save since 2024. That's a lot of bullpen ammunition spent to win one game. Washington is exactly .500 at 42-42 despite losing Irvin, Herz, Gray, Williams, and Sykora to the IL at various points. That's either a credit to the roster or a warning that regression is possible — probably both.

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(10)
  • Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery last September, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.06/14
  • Day-To-DayTyler Stuart (SP) — no05/25
  • Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
  • Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILJake Irvin (SP) — Irvin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fredericksburg on Sunday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.06/26
  • 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) was diagnosed Monday with a left flexor strain, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — Kranick (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Fredericksburg on Sunday, striking out two over 1.2 perfect innings.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(14)
  • Day-To-DayJhonkensy Noel (RF) — Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.06/08
  • Day-To-DayLevi Wells (P) — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/28
  • Day-To-DayRichard Guasch (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayWill Robertson (LF) — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.05/08
  • 7-Day ILAdley Rutschman (C) — The Orioles placed Rutschman on the 7-day injured list Saturday after he was diagnosed with a concussion, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.06/21
  • 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers (RF) — Beavers (oblique) is in Baltimore, before Saturday's matchup against Washington, and is feeling good after six rehab games, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — Bassitt (back) underwent a minor procedure to have bone spurs removed from his back, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILDean Kremer (SP) — Kremer (quadriceps) made his second rehab start for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk in 6.2 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Bautista (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILYaramil Hiraldo (RP) — Hiraldo (shoulder) will throw live batting practice Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.06/13
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby was recently evaluated by Dr. Chris Looze in Baltimore due to ongoing symptoms with his injured right shoulder, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15
  • 60-Day-ILZach Eflin (SP) — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.05/08

Baltimore's injury report is staggering. Adley Rutschman went on the 7-day IL Saturday with a concussion — losing your starting catcher and best offensive player mid-series is a genuine blow. Ryan Mountcastle is on the 60-day IL with a foot injury. Jordan Westburg had Tommy John surgery. Zach Eflin also had Tommy John. Chris Bassitt just had bone spurs removed from his back. For a roster this shredded, Bradish being legitimate has been the one constant. The Orioles are 39-45, but with a full lineup they're a different team.

The Nationals have momentum and fresh legs in their bullpen. But to steal this series in Baltimore they need Littell to give them something, and his recent track record makes that a significant ask. Bradish in this form is a problem for any lineup. Give the Orioles the edge in a tighter game than Saturday's.

Sources

MLBWashington NationalsBaltimore OriolesPolymarketKalshiZack LittellKyle Bradish