New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
NYM	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	3
PHI	2	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	—	6	12	1

Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for Philadelphia looking to bounce back after his team dropped the series opener 4-1 on Thursday, when Francisco Alvarez went deep twice and spoiled the Phillies' second-half kickoff. Sean Manaea gets the call for New York, and first pitch is set for 4:05 PM ET.

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FINAL

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ML

Total

Mets(41-57)

WLLLW

1

+1.5-127+160o8.5-115

Phillies(54-44)

LWWLW

6

-1.5+125-156u8.5+117

Best BetPhillies -171

Pregame

The Phillies are the play here off the strength of Luzardo, who's 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA lifetime against this Mets lineup and coming off an 11-strikeout gem. New York can obviously scrap — they just took Game 1 — but with the interim-manager instability and a beat-up pitching staff, the Phillies' talent gap should show up more often than not. Sharp money has already stacked up on Philadelphia in early market activity.

Luzardo is coming off arguably his best start of the year: 7 scoreless innings against Cincinnati with 11 strikeouts and just 2 hits allowed, good enough to earn his first career All-Star nod. He's been especially nasty against this specific opponent too, sitting at 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA across 12 career starts versus the Mets. Manaea, by contrast, has struggled against Philadelphia over his career, and while he did throw 7 solid innings in his last outing against Kansas City, his overall numbers this season (2-4, 4.56 ERA) put him a tier below his Saturday counterpart.

Sean Manaea

(2-5)·4.42 ERA

Jul 9 vs Royals

W

7.0IP

2ER

6K

1BB

97P

07/18 Lineup

Jesús Luzardo

(9-5)·3.57 ERA

Jul 9 @ Reds

W

7.0IP

0ER

11K

2BB

96P

07/18 Lineup

New York is limping into this game more broadly. The Mets fired Carlos Mendoza in late June with the team 17 games under .500, and interim manager Andy Green has been candid about the root issue: a talented roster that simply hasn't executed. Juan Soto remains a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat and is banged up but playing, while injuries have stripped the pitching staff of Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill and multiple bullpen arms. The Phillies, meanwhile, are chasing Atlanta in the NL East and have real rotation depth behind Luzardo, headlined by Zack Wheeler's sub-3.00 ERA season.

New York Mets

(41-57)

Jul 16W@ Phillies4-1

Jul 12Lvs Red Sox2-3

Jul 11Lvs Red Sox0-4

Jul 10Lvs Red Sox2-6

Jul 9Wvs Royals7-3

Philadelphia Phillies

(54-44)

Jul 16Lvs Mets1-4

Jul 12W@ Tigers5-0

Jul 11W@ Tigers4-2

Jul 10L@ Tigers2-10

Jul 9W@ Reds1-0

New York's actually won 2 of its last 5, including that Game 1 win over these same Phillies, so this isn't a team rolling over. But the sample includes a 3-game skid to Boston sandwiched around it, and Mark Vientos' fractured hand only thins out an already shorthanded lineup. Philadelphia's own last 5 is a mixed bag too — a blowout loss to Detroit in there — but the underlying pitching depth and lineup pop (Kyle Schwarber's power numbers are still climbing) make them the more complete team on paper.

New York Mets

(9)

• Day-To-DayJuan Soto (LF) — Soto went 1-for-2 with a solo home run, two walks and an additional run scored in Thursday's 7-3 win over the Royals.07/17
• 10-Day-ILMark Vientos (1B) — Mets interim manager Andy Green said Thursday that Vientos has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.07/10
• 15-Day-ILAustin Warren (RP) — An MRI on Warren's right forearm revealed no ligament damage Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.07/09
• 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — Holmes (fibula) will begin a rehab assignment with High-A Brooklyn on Saturday.07/17
• 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets announced June 1 that Hagenman (rib) has yet to resume a throwing program, MLB.com reports.07/13
• 60-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — Robert (back) went 2-for-6 with two runs and an RBI while playing eight innings in center field in a rehab game with Double-A Binghamton on Sunday.07/13
• 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/25
• 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
• 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08

Philadelphia Phillies

(5)

• 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — The Phillies placed Keller on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a torn UCL in his right elbow.07/16
• 15-Day-ILTanner Banks (RP) — The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain.07/09
• 15-Day-ILLou Trivino (RP) — The Phillies selected Trivino's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.07/08
• 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
• 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24

Both injury boards are heavy, but the lean still favors Philadelphia here. The Phillies' absences are mostly bullpen pieces and a long-term loss in Johan Rojas, while the Mets are without multiple rotation arms and a middle-of-the-order first baseman, on top of Soto playing through soreness. Add in the home ballpark and the fact Luzardo has historically owned this matchup, and Saturday sets up as a get-right spot for Philly.