Barstool Bush
Predictions

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

By Bush StaffUpdated 9d ago·2 min read
New York MetsNYM(53-69)
Atlanta BravesATL(73-48)
3—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
NYM
000001101370
ATL
01101030—6120

Tyler Mahle got the ball for his home debut at Truist Park, his first Atlanta start since coming over from the Giants at the deadline, and the Braves handed him a lineup that had already won 2 straight. Zac Thornton took the mound for a Mets team just trying to find a rhythm in a lost season, going up against a staff that's been retooling on the fly.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Mets(53-69)
LLWWL
3
Braves(73-48)
WWLWL
6
Best BetBraves -157
Postgame

The Braves closed it out 6-3, validating the price we took even as it tightened toward gametime. The bull case about Atlanta's momentum held up exactly as advertised — this wasn't particularly close once the middle innings hit, and the Mets' one bull point, a capable Thornton, wasn't enough to keep New York in it.

Pregame

The Braves are the right side to back straight-up here — Acuña and Olson have been carrying a lineup that's been one of the hottest in baseball, and Mahle's underlying stuff has looked far better since the trade than his overall number suggests. New York's counterpunch is a rookie in Thornton who's pitched well, but that's a puncher's chance behind a bullpen that's been stripped of three relievers in the last two weeks. Price reflects a real gap in team quality right now, not just recent form.

New York came in without Juan Soto, who's been out since late July with a left calf strain that MRI results confirmed as a Grade 2 tear — the kind of injury that typically keeps a guy out for weeks, not days. That left an already thin Mets bullpen leaning harder on names further down the depth chart, while Atlanta dealt with its own rash of arm injuries up and down the pitching staff.

Zac Thornton
Zac Thornton
(3-4)·3.04 ERA
Aug 7 @ Pirates
W
5.0IP
0ER
3K
2BB
63P
08/12 Lineup
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
(4-10)·4.53 ERA
Aug 7 @ Yankees
ND
6.0IP
0ER
9K
2BB
92P
08/12 Lineup

None of it mattered much by the end of the night. The Braves did what they'd done for most of the week — find enough offense to make the pitching matchup a footnote — and shut the door on a series that had gone back and forth.

Atlanta chipped away early, scratching across single runs in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th before the game really got away from the Mets. A 3-run 7th put the finishing touches on a 12-hit night, while New York's offense stayed quiet until single runs in the 6th, 7th and 9th made the final score look closer than the game ever felt.

The result fits the shape of both seasons right now. The Mets are buried under .500 and playing out the string, while the Braves keep piling up wins and have now taken 2 of the first 3 in this set after dropping the opener earlier in the week.

New York Mets
New York Mets
(53-69)
Aug 12L@ Braves3-6
Aug 11L@ Braves0-4
Aug 10W@ Braves8-5
Aug 9W@ Pirates11-1
Aug 8L@ Pirates0-9
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(73-48)
Aug 12Wvs Mets6-3
Aug 11Wvs Mets4-0
Aug 10Lvs Mets5-8
Aug 9W@ Yankees2-1
Aug 8L@ Yankees4-5

New York's not getting healthier anytime soon, either. Soto has said he expects to play again this season, but nobody's penciling him back in before September, and the Mets' bullpen is already down 3 arms to injury. Atlanta's dealing with its own list of wounded pitchers, but the difference is depth — the Braves had enough to plug the holes and still win series.

New York Mets
New York Mets
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILJuan Soto (LF) — The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a strained left calf.07/25
  • 10-Day-ILMark Vientos (1B) — Mets interim manager Andy Green said Thursday that Vientos has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.07/10
  • 15-Day-ILDevin Williams (RP) — The Mets placed Williams on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder strain.08/10
  • 15-Day-ILCionel Perez (RP) — The Mets placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left forearm strain.07/31
  • 15-Day-ILAustin Warren (RP)
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets announced June 1 that Hagenman (rib) has yet to resume a throwing program, MLB.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(7)
  • 15-Day-ILRobert Suarez (RP) — Suarez (elbow) will advance his throwing progression on flat ground Thursday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.08/12
  • 15-Day-ILReynaldo Lopez (RP) — Lopez (knee) underwent an MRI on Sunday that showed no structural damage, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.08/02
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) is still not feeling 100 percent and will have his throwing progression slowed, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.08/12
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Strider (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Monday that Strider (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

For the Mets, it's another game to file away and forget in a season that's stopped being about winning and started being about evaluation. For the Braves, it's 1 more series banked in a stretch run that's starting to feel inevitable.

Sources

MLBNew York MetsAtlanta BravesPolymarketKalshiZac ThorntonTyler Mahle