Barstool Bush
Predictions

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 6d ago·2 min read
Miami MarlinsMIA(63-61)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(59-63)
8—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIA
0011100418141
CIN
002020000481

Ryan Gusto took the ball for Miami still hunting his first win in a Marlins uniform, while Brady Singer got the start for Cincinnati at 6:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, trying to keep building on the turnaround he's had since June.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Marlins(63-61)
WLLWW
8
Reds(59-63)
LWWLW
4
Best BetMarlins -105
Postgame

The Marlins delivered exactly what the pregame case hoped for — length and a late offensive breakout, not a dominant start from Gusto. Miami won 8-4 by out-hitting Cincinnati 14-to-8, with the lineup doing the heavy lifting the moneyline pick was actually banking on.

Pregame

Miami's the value side here even on the road, priced close enough to Cincinnati's number that this is basically a coin flip on paper. The Marlins own the better season record and get a look at Singer instead of the Reds' hot arm from the night before, which levels the pitching matchup more than it looked on paper. Back Miami to bounce back and win it outright.

Both rotations are thinner than the top names suggest. Miami is already without Max Meyer, Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur, and now Kyle Stowers is out too with a hamstring strain, while Cincinnati is working around Spencer Steer's wrist and, as of this week, life without Hunter Greene, who needs 12-to-18 months to recover from a second Tommy John surgery. The two clubs went off nearly even on the moneyline entering the day.

Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
(0-3)·4.37 ERA
Aug 9 vs Angels
ND
4.0IP
2ER
4K
1BB
60P
08/15 Lineup
Brady Singer
Brady Singer
(5-11)·4.72 ERA
Aug 9 @ Nationals
L
6.0IP
3ER
3K
1BB
103P
08/15 Lineup

None of that mattered much for the first five innings. Cincinnati grabbed a pair of 2-run frames in the 3rd and 5th, Miami answered with single runs in the 3rd, 4th and 5th, and the two clubs traded blows in a game that felt like it would come down to one big swing.

That swing came in the 8th, when Miami's bats woke up all at once for 4 runs and turned a coin-flip game into a comfortable win, then tacked on one more in the 9th for good measure. The Marlins out-hit the Reds 14-to-8 on the night, a sign of a lineup that had gone quiet for stretches of this series finally breaking through.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(63-61)
Aug 15W@ Reds8-4
Aug 14L@ Reds0-1
Aug 13Lvs Pirates1-13
Aug 12Wvs Pirates8-2
Aug 11Wvs Pirates2-0
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(59-63)
Aug 15Lvs Marlins4-8
Aug 14Wvs Marlins1-0
Aug 13W@ White Sox9-8
Aug 12L@ White Sox0-5
Aug 11W@ White Sox5-4

The two clubs are now split at a game apiece in this set, with the rubber match set for Sunday behind Nick Lodolo and Eury Pérez. For Miami, it's another data point in the argument that June's 20-6 run wasn't a fluke; for Cincinnati, it's a reminder that Singer's turnaround since June hasn't fully erased the shaky stretches that still show up.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILKyle Stowers (1B) — Miami placed Stowers on the 10-day IL with a left hamstring strain on Tuesday.08/11
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Bender (RP) — The Marlins have tentatively scheduled Bender (shin) to face hitters Friday, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.08/12
  • 15-Day-ILMax Meyer (SP) — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Wednesday that Meyer (neck) received a cortisone shot to relieve discomfort in the rib area, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/12
  • 15-Day-ILWilliam Kempner (RP) — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Wednesday that Kempner will require surgery for his sprained right elbow, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.08/12
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP) — Nardi (ribs) is scheduled to visit a doctor Tuesday after experiencing elbow discomfort, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP) — Snelling (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program in September, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — Mazur (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program sometime in September, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — Henriquez (elbow) began playing catch from 60 feet out Friday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.07/18
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Steer (1B) — Steer (wrist) is scheduled to have a splint removed from his right wrist Monday, MLB.com reports.08/10
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) did not allow a hit or walk while striking out two over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.08/15
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) will be out for 12-to-18 months after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) allowed two hits and one walk while striking out two over two innings Tuesday in a rehab start for Triple-A Louisville.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — The Reds transferred Dunn (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Thursday.08/06
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18

Neither team is whole right now, and both are still fighting for position with more than a month of games left. Miami leaves Cincinnati with the series tied and its wild-card case a little stronger; the Reds head into Sunday looking to answer back before the two clubs part ways.

Sources

MLBMiami MarlinsCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiRyan GustoBrady Singer