Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

By Bush StaffUpdated 2d ago·2 min read
Miami MarlinsMIA(64-63)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(69-58)
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MIA
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PHI
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First pitch went off at 6:05 PM ET with Aaron Nola (4-9, 5.16 ERA) looking to build on a strong final tune-up against Minnesota, and Sandy Alcantara (13-7, 3.47 ERA) trying to turn a quietly excellent season into a series-salvaging start for Miami. The names alone made it a mismatch on paper in Alcantara's favor, records be damned.

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FINAL
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Total
Marlins(64-63)
LLWWL
1
Phillies(69-58)
WWWWW
4
Best BetPhillies -120
Postgame

Nola delivered exactly the bounce-back start the pick needed — 7 innings, 1 run, 8 strikeouts, no walks — and the win streak carried right through to a sixth straight. The bear case about Alcantara being the better arm held true on the stat line, but it didn't matter with Arraez's early homer doing the damage.

Pregame

Philadelphia's won 5 straight and has taken care of business against this exact opponent already this series. Nola's command issues are real, but his most recent start showed a strikeout jump that the market hasn't fully priced into a season-long ERA number. Miami's Alcantara is the better arm on paper, but a hot lineup and a struggling road team make the Phillies the safer outright pick.

Nola came in with an ugly 4-9 record but real swing-and-miss stuff underneath it, and the Marlins' lineup has had trouble solving him and this Phillies club generally over the last week. Miami's rotation and bullpen depth have also taken a beating — Max Meyer, William Kempner, Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur are all out, which left Clayton McCullough's staff thinner than the win total against Cincinnati would suggest.

Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara
(13-8)·3.46 ERA
Aug 14 @ Reds
L
7.0IP
1ER
2K
4BB
103P
08/19 Lineup
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
(5-9)·5.12 ERA
Aug 13 @ Twins
W
5.0IP
1ER
9K
3BB
97P
08/19 Lineup

None of that stopped the board from pricing Philadelphia as the clear favorite going in, and the market wasn't wrong to lean that way — Citizens Bank Park has been a house of horrors for Miami all week.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(64-63)
Aug 18L@ Phillies4-6
Aug 17L@ Phillies5-6
Aug 16W@ Reds7-1
Aug 15W@ Reds8-4
Aug 14L@ Reds0-1
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(69-58)
Aug 18Wvs Marlins6-4
Aug 17Wvs Marlins6-5
Aug 16W@ Twins7-5
Aug 15W@ Twins9-1
Aug 13W@ Twins7-1

Nola went out and delivered exactly the start Philadelphia needed: 7 innings, 1 run, 8 strikeouts, zero walks. Jose Arraez set the tone early, scoring on a Garrett Stubbs infield single in the 2nd before turning around and hitting a 2-run homer in the 3rd. Miami's lone answer came on a Xavier Sanoja homer in the 6th, and Kyle Schwarber's run in the 7th on a Justin Turner double — upheld after a Phillies challenge — was more than enough insurance.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILKyle Stowers (1B)Stowers (hamstring) is in the middle of a return-to-play running progression, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.08/17
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Bender (RP)Bender (shin) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.08/17
  • 15-Day-ILMax Meyer (SP)Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Wednesday that Meyer (neck) received a cortisone shot to relieve discomfort in the rib area, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/12
  • 15-Day-ILWilliam Kempner (RP)Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Wednesday that Kempner will require surgery for his sprained right elbow, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.08/12
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP)The Marlins announced Monday that Nardi (rib) is scheduled to undergo surgery on his left elbow in the near future, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP)Snelling (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program in September, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP)Mazur (elbow) is expected to begin a throwing program sometime in September, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP)Henriquez (elbow) began playing catch from 60 feet out Friday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.07/18
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(7)
  • Day-To-DayDerek Hill (CF)Hill (shoulder) will start in right field and bat sixth in Monday's game against the Cardinals.08/16
  • 10-Day-ILRafael Marchan (C)Marchan (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.08/13
  • 15-Day-ILCaleb Kilian (RP)Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said that Kilian suffered a right side injury during his relief appearance in Sunday's 7-6 victory over the Blue Jays in 12 innings, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports. Kilian allowed an unearned run on one hit over an inning of relief en route to earning his fourth win of the season.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILTanner Banks (RP)Banks (forearm) has progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, per MLB.com.08/16
  • 60-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP)Keller underwent right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with internal brace and flexor tendon repair Tuesday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF)Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF)The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24

Alcantara wasn't bad, exactly — 6 innings, 3 runs, 8 hits — but he managed just 1 strikeout after averaging closer to a strikeout an inning most of the year, and Philadelphia's contact-heavy approach against him worked. Janson Duran closed it out with a scoreless 9th, and the final was 4-1.

The sweep runs Philadelphia's win streak to 6 with the finale included, and it's the kind of stretch that turns a good August into a real playoff push. For Miami, it's the flip side — a rotation and bullpen already down several arms just got run through the buzzsaw of the hottest team in baseball, and there's no easy fix waiting on the schedule.

MLBMiami MarlinsPhiladelphia PhilliesPolymarketKalshiSandy AlcantaraAaron Nola