Miami Marlins at New York Mets

By Bush StaffUpdated 21d ago·2 min read
Miami MarlinsMIA(55-55)
New York MetsNYM(47-63)
52
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIA
000041000581
NYM
000010100270

Janson Junk got the ball for Miami and Kodai Senga took the mound for New York when the two clubs reconvened at 7:10 PM ET, a pitching matchup nobody would've circled back in spring training. Senga was a rotation afterthought two months into this season, demoted to the bullpen after his ERA ballooned past 10, and he was only starting because Freddy Peralta got scratched with trade buzz swirling around him. Junk, meanwhile, has quietly turned into a stabilizer for a Miami staff that's been gutted by injuries all year.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Marlins(55-55)
LWWWL
5
Mets(47-63)
WLWPW
2
Best BetMarlins +108
Postgame

The Marlins won outright 5-2, cashing the moneyline as Junk's steadier form held up while Senga's start unraveled in the fifth.

Pregame

We took the Marlins at plus-money, betting that Junk's steadier recent form would hold up better than a Mets rotation piecing things together on the fly. Senga starting at all was a product of circumstance — Peralta scratched with trade interest — and that kind of instability is exactly what value moneyline dogs feed on.

New York is already picking up the pieces without Juan Soto (calf) and Mark Vientos (fractured hand), and leaning on an emergency starter only widened the gaps in the lineup. Miami has its own list — Max Meyer, Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur are all out long-term — but the Marlins have leaned on rehab reinforcements like Owen Caissie trending back toward the majors. None of that stopped New York from opening as the moneyline favorite, which says plenty about how far this season has drifted for the Mets.

Miami Marlins
Janson Junk
(6-7)·4.41 ERA
Jul 26 vs Padres
ND
4.2IP
1ER
6K
0BB
75P
07/31 Lineup
New York Mets
Kodai Senga
(0-8)·8.12 ERA
Jun 23 vs Cubs
L
3.2IP
7ER
6K
5BB
98P
07/31 Lineup

None of the pregame math mattered once the fifth inning hit. Miami sent a parade of hitters to the plate and put up 4 runs in that frame alone, then tacked on another in the sixth to turn a scoreless slog into a laugher. Senga worked into that fifth but the damage piled up in a hurry, extending one of the roughest stretches by a former All-Star this franchise has watched in years.

New York clawed a run back in the fifth and added another in the seventh, and the Mets actually outplayed Miami defensively — no errors to the Marlins' one — but it wasn't nearly enough to erase that middle-innings collapse. The offense mustered 7 hits and never threatened to turn this into the kind of shootout the total was built for.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(55-55)
Jul 30L@ Mets2-4
Jul 29Wvs Phillies8-6
Jul 28Wvs Phillies1-0
Jul 27Wvs Phillies8-7
Jul 26Lvs Padres3-5
New York Mets
New York Mets
(47-63)
Jul 30Wvs Marlins4-2
Jul 29Lvs Braves0-1
Jul 29Wvs Braves3-2
Jul 28Pvs Braves0-0
Jul 27Wvs Braves14-3

Miami is scraping its way back to .500 on the strength of stretches like this one, even with half its bullpen on the injured list and a front office that's decided not to be a buyer or a seller this deadline. New York's win the night before now looks like more of an outlier than a turning point — this roster is still waiting on Soto and Vientos, and until then, nights like Friday are the more likely outcome.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(11)
  • Day-To-DayLeo Jimenez (3B)Jimenez went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run and a walk in Sunday's 9-8 win over the Athletics.07/29
  • Day-To-DayMichael Petersen (RP)Petersen is still dealing with soreness in his right forearm after being struck by a comebacker during his relief appearance in Sunday's 5-3 loss to the Padres, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.07/27
  • 10-Day-ILOwen Caissie (RF)Caissie (calf) went 1-for-1 with two walks and a solo home run for Triple-A Jacksonville on Tuesday.07/29
  • 15-Day-ILMax Meyer (SP)Meyer (neck) will continue treatment and won't throw for the next two weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.07/24
  • 15-Day-ILAnthony Bender (RP)Bender (shin) was cleared to begin a throwing program Friday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILWilliam Kempner (RP)The Marlins placed Kempner on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right elbow sprain.07/12
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP)Nardi (ribs) said Wednesday that he's about 2-to-3 weeks away from beginning a rehab assignment, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports.07/29
  • 60-Day-ILJosh Ekness (RP)Ekness (calf) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Thursday, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP)Henriquez (elbow) began playing catch from 60 feet out Friday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP)Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.05/22
  • 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP)The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
New York Mets
New York Mets
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILJuan Soto (LF)The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a strained left calf.07/25
  • 10-Day-ILMark Vientos (1B)Mets interim manager Andy Green said Thursday that Vientos has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.07/10
  • 15-Day-ILCionel Perez (RP)The Mets placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left forearm strain.07/31
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP)Holmes (lower leg) tossed four scoreless innings in a rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie on Tuesday, giving up two hits and two walks while striking out three over 59 pitches (37 strikes).07/29
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP)The Mets announced June 1 that Hagenman (rib) has yet to resume a throwing program, MLB.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP)Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP)The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP)The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
MLBMiami MarlinsNew York MetsPolymarketKalshiJanson JunkKodai Senga