Barstool Bush
Predictions

Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals

By Bush StaffUpdated 70d ago·2 min read
Seattle MarinersSEA(37-34)
Washington NationalsWSH(35-35)
3—8
FINAL
123456789RHE
SEA
000030000383
WSH
30002030—8101

Castillo (2-5, 5.16) and Cavalli (3-4, 3.88) get the ball at 4:05 PM ET for the middle game in D.C. Castillo finally looked like himself last time out, going 5.2 scoreless-ish innings against Detroit with 5 punchouts and just 1 walk. Cavalli is the opposite arrow — he got pounded for 4 earned in 5 innings against Arizona his last time out, surrendering 7 hits and walking another.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Mariners(37-34)
WLLWW
3
Nationals(35-35)
LLWWL
8
Best BetMariners -111
Pregame

The market has this as a coin flip at -103/-107, which is generous to Washington given that the Nats are 12-21 at home and just got steamrolled by 8 in the opener. Castillo looked like a different pitcher in his last outing in Detroit, and a near-pick price on the road team that's clearly playing better baseball is the value side. Lean Seattle.

Friday belonged entirely to Seattle. Bryce Miller threw a career-high 8 innings of 2-run ball, Colt Emerson cleared the fence in a 5-run second, and the Mariners cruised 10-2 after a long rain delay. The one wart was Randy Arozarena pulling up with a leg issue running through first — Dan Wilson floated hamstring strain, spasm, or cramp, with a re-eval slated for Saturday.

Seattle Mariners
Luis Castillo
(3-6)·4.93 ERA
Jun 7 @ Tigers
ND
5.2IP
1ER
5K
1BB
100P
06/13 Lineup
Washington Nationals
Cade Cavalli
(4-4)·4.00 ERA
Jun 7 @ Diamondbacks
L
5.0IP
4ER
2K
1BB
88P
06/13 Lineup
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
(37-34)
Jun 12W@ Nationals10-2
Jun 11L@ Orioles5-7
Jun 10L@ Orioles2-7
Jun 9W@ Orioles6-5
Jun 8W@ Orioles6-3
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(35-35)
Jun 12Lvs Mariners2-10
Jun 10L@ Giants10-11
Jun 10W@ Giants6-3
Jun 9W@ Giants4-3
Jun 7L@ Diamondbacks1-5

The Nationals are quietly miserable at home. They came into this series 12-21 at Nationals Park, the worst home mark in the NL, and Friday night was a fresh reminder of why. Blake Butera's group has slid to .500 with 3 losses in the last 5, and James Wood's 19th homer was about the only thing to feel good about. They need Cavalli to give them length — the bullpen has been leaned on hard.

Seattle's lineup is doing this without most of its core. Cal Raleigh (oblique) is finally on a rehab assignment at High-A Everett, J.P. Crawford is still waiting on CT scan results for his hand, and Brendan Donovan is weeks away after a PRP injection on his groin. The fact that the Mariners are 37-34 and dropped 10 on the road Friday with that group sidelined says everything about the depth. Emerson and the kids keep doing damage.

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
(9)
  • Day-To-DayBrock Rodden (2B) — no06/09
  • 10-Day-ILWill Wilson (3B) — Wilson (thumb) has gone 3-for-9 with two RBI and a 1:2 BB:K in his first three rehab games between High-A Everett and Triple-A Tacoma.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILJ.P. Crawford (SS) — Crawford (hand) is still waiting for the results of a CT scan he underwent Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILCal Raleigh (C) — Raleigh (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with High-A Everett on Sunday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.06/03
  • 10-Day-ILBrendan Donovan (3B) — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Sunday that Donovan will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection for his strained left groin as well as his adductor and is expected to resume baseball activity in 2-to-3 weeks, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.05/18
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Brash (RP) — Brash has returned to Seattle to have his right lat strain evaluated further, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.06/11
  • 15-Day-ILCooper Criswell (RP) — Criswell earned the save in Sunday's 8-0 win over the Guardians, allowing two hits while striking out five over three scoreless innings.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILLogan Evans (SP) — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Vargas (RP) — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.05/08
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(10)
  • Day-To-DayTyler Stuart (SP) — no05/25
  • Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
  • Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILJake Irvin (SP) — Nationals manager Blake Butera said Monday that Irvin (shoulder) remains shut down from throwing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) struck out four batters over three scoreless innings in his second rehab start Thursday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) threw a simulated game at Nationals Park ahead of Tuesday's loss to the Marlins, MLB.com reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals transferred Kranick (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/25
  • 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08

Castillo's season line is ugly, but the Tigers start was the first real glimpse of the version Seattle thought they signed up for — 2 hits, 1 walk, efficient through 100 pitches. Cavalli, meanwhile, has been better than his record under the hood since May, with an 11.3 K/9 and improved walk rate. If he can survive the first inning — his recurring problem — this is closer to a coin flip than the box score from Friday suggests.

The total sits at 8.5 with juice to the over, which feels about right for a Castillo-Cavalli matchup where both guys have shown they can be touched. First pitch is 4:05 PM ET.

Sources

MLBSeattle MarinersWashington NationalsPolymarketKalshiLuis CastilloCade Cavalli